Small-State Responses to Strategic Dynamics in the Indian Ocean

The Indian Ocean is a vast and dynamic domain. Yet, much like its Pacific counterpart, it is too easily cast as a great emptiness, and too frequently the strategic dynamics shaping it are underestimated and underexamined.¹ By drawing us to consider major/minor trends and their implications for the decades ahead, this activity encourages more creative and critical engagement in the possible and alternative futures of the Indian Ocean—with particular attention to the primacy of India and the supporting role of the United States.

The scenarios presented in this roundtable highlight the complex dynamics at play, bring key vulnerabilities to the fore, and expose blind spots in strategic policy thinking. In particular, while conventional wisdom suggests that the great powers are jostling for power and influence in the Indian Ocean region, these scenarios also raise the interesting opposite problem: What happens if traditionally powerful states like India and the United States retrench from the region? This essay draws attention to three influential dynamics that might emerge: (1) the potential for a power vacuum in the Indian Ocean, (2) the evolving agency of littoral and island states, and (3) the need to sustain strategic Indo-Pacific partnerships. Each of these themes is discussed in turn, followed by a brief discussion of the potential implications for Australia.

A Power Vacuum in the Indian Ocean

To begin, it is worth restating the significance of India's evolving leadership role in the Indian Ocean, bolstered by the presence of strategic partners, notably the United States. As Arzan Tarapore has observed, "India remains the most consequential strategic actor in the Indian Ocean region, by virtue of its geographic centrality, economic and military power, and abiding networks of influence across the region."² Should India pull away from playing such a consequential role, the resultant power vacuum would see "stepped up maneuvering" from a range of states seeking to fill it.³

India's past trajectory reveals the nation's tendency to distraction alongside an ambivalent (or at least complacent) assumption of regional leadership, including in the maritime domain.⁴ With no shortage of potential distractions—whether arising from internal crises, political divisions, or external border hostilities—India could well turn its interest and investment away from the Indo-Pacific toward continental concerns.

Of course, no single actor would be as well-positioned to replace India's significant position in the Indian Ocean. China makes for an obvious protagonist, with a significant presence in the region already and a growing influence throughout the Indian Ocean littoral among small island states. But it is not the only actor with aspirations for this ocean. Drawing on the rhetoric of "old friendship" and "joint engagement," others, including Russia and Iran, may well seek to take advantage of a preoccupied India to enhance their own strategic presence in the maritime domain. Not to be left behind, European powers, including France and Germany, would look to ramp up their engagement to ensure that all-important maritime transit lines remain unimpeded in the emerging contest for hegemony in the ocean.

Quite separate to the challenge posed by state actors jostling for position in an Indian Ocean power vacuum is the potential for the proliferation of violent nonstate actors. With a plethora of activities ranging from piracy to terrorism to transnational crime to illegal fishing, these actors would jeopardize the security of the maritime domain, bringing serious implications for the littoral and island states. Overall, the result would likely be a further contest that destabilizes Indian Ocean strategic dynamics into the longer term.

The Significance of Indian Ocean Littoral and Island States

Cultivating the favorable disposition of littoral and island nations states has been a central component of India's regional statecraft. Yet, as Darshana Baruah and Yogesh Joshi have noted, in the absence of any significant competition, "India ignored and often took for granted its relationship with its maritime neighbors."⁵ Should India's attention lapse further, the interests and agency of littoral and island states may prove influential in setting the regional agenda.

China has already been active in cultivating...