Probability and Improbability in Eighteenth-Century Research

Probability and ImprobabilitybaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA in Eighteenth-Century Research GEORGES M AY T w o y e a rs ag o , o r, m o re p re c ise ly , tw o y e a rs m in u s o n e m o n th ag o , w h ile th is S o c ie ty w as h o ld in g its T h ird A n n u a l M eetin g in L o s A n g eles, I w as e n jo y in g a sa b b a tic a l y e a r in P aris. I w e ll re m e m b e r th e su rp rise a n d e m o tio n w h ic h I fe lt w h e n th e te le ­ p h o n e ra n g a n d th e o p e ra to r to ld m e I h a d a lo n g d ista n c e call fro m C a lifo rn ia . T h is w as y o u r N o m in a tin g C o m m itte e in th e p e rso n o f A lice L a b o rd e . T h e p u rp o se w as to ask w h e th e r I w o u ld a c c e p t n o m in a tio n as se c o n d v ice p re sid e n t. I ju st said I re m e m b e r th e su rp rise a n d th e e m o tio n : th e e m o tio n w as o f c o u rse o n e o f in te n se p rid e , fo r I w as n o t u n a w a re o f th e p ro b a b ility o f p ro m o tio n in tw o ste p s fro m th e se c o n d v ice p re sid e n c y to th e p re sid e n c y ; b u t it w as also o n e o f aw e a t th e e n o rm o u s e x p e n se s in c u rre d b y th e N o m in a tin g C o m m itte e in callin g m e fro m so far a w a y . In d e e d I w as so a w e d th a t it in h ib ite d m e a n d c a u se d m e sim p ly to a sse n t p assiv ely to M a d a m e L a b o rd e’s e n tre a tie s. I su sp e c t th is h a d b e e n th e stra te g y o f th e N o m in a tin g C o m m itte e all alo n g . O n ly a fte r I h a d h u n g u p d id I re a liz e th a t I 3 4 I GEORGES MAYbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA h a d n o t a sk e d a n y q u e stio n a t all. I a m su re A lice L a b o rd e w ill d o m e th e ju stic e o f c o rro b o ra tin g th is. I h a d n o t ev en in q u ire d a b o u t th e salary , le t a lo n e th e o th e r p...