Mixed Values and Societal Constraints: The Weak Prospects for Authoritarianism in Ukraine

Given the global rise of illiberalism and Ukraine’s post-revolutionary turbulence, what are the risks that the war-torn society descends into authoritarianism? In contrast to numerous warnings, I argue that none of the modern forms of authoritarianism is likely to take hold in post-Euromaidan Ukraine. Following the congruence thesis—the central concept of political culture theory, which posits that the regime is stable insofar as its authority pattern meets people’s authority beliefs—authoritarian congruence is hardly achievable in post-Euromaidan Ukraine thanks to citizens’ support for the liberal notion of democracy and emancipative values. Any attempt to impose authoritarian rule from above would face the cumulative resistance effect produced by structural, institutional, and agency-based factors.