Taiwan at a Crossroads

In his 2001 New Year speeches, Taiwan’s new president Chen Shui-bian made further efforts to reduce tensions across the Taiwan Strait, though he was still ambiguous concerning the key issues. The future of cross-strait relations depends on “two consistencies.” One is whether or not Chen will go on to elaborate and concretize his currently broad and abstract cross-strait framework so as to be consistent with his “good- intentioned” New Year speeches. The other is whether or not his party will adjust itself to be consistent with Chen’s current policy line. If not, it may be viewed as a revoking of Chen’s good intentions, and Beijing would then interpret this as a tactic to buy time and as a cover-up of his pursuit of Taiwan’s independence. If so, a crisis across the strait would be inevitable.