The Future of U.S.-China Relations and the Korean Peninsula

Korea remains one of the principal issues on the Asian agenda in which both the United Stated and China have a strong interest. This article explores some of the links between changing Sino-American relations and the future of Korea. It does so in three steps. First, it examines the international context within which China and the United States currently operate. Second, it examines key interests shaping their bilateral relations relevant to the future of the Korean peninsula, especially China’s security concerns as a rising power in an era of American preponderance. Beijing’s interest in increasing its international influence while also maintaining valuable economic ties to the United States (both essential to ensuring the Chinese Communist Party’s political legitimacy at home) presents China’s leaders with conflicting foreign policy imperatives manifest in their view of events in Korea. And third, the article examines four highly stylized scenarios depicting Korean futures and their significance for Sino-American relations.