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ASIANPERSPECTIVE, Vol. 27, No. 4, 2003, pp. 277-293. Commentary DIVERSIFYING CANADA'S DEPENDENCE: LOOK EAST Daryl Copeland Preparing For Change ... In the wake of the decision to refrain from participating in the war on Iraq, Canadians seem keen to examine, once again, alternatives to Canada's dependence on the United States. A similar refrain, and an evident discomfort at the extent to which this country's international policy future seems to turn on its relationship with the United States, ran through the submissions to last spring's innovative Foreign Policy Dialogue.1 There is a sense that the extent of continental integration may have grown past the point of diminishing returns; Canada is at risk of being locked into a relationship that does not allow for future changes in the global balance of economic and political power. These counter-currents have grown stronger with the exposure of the pretext for the war in Iraq—the existence of chemical and bio­ logical weapons of mass destruction; an active nuclear program; significant links to al-Qaeda as unsustainable, if not conjured, and as the putative liberation has descended into a difficult and deadly occupation. Canada's new prime minister, Paul Martin, has announced his intention to restore Canada's place in the world, and to address the serious under-resourcing of Canada's international policy instruments (defense, development, and diplomacy) that 1. See www.foreign-policy-dialogue.ca. 278 Daryl Copeland resulted from the deep federal program cuts of the mid-1990s. This is likely to involve a comprehensive re-assessment of alter­ natives for regional re-engagement, and might begin with a look—again—at Canada's relationship with Europe, evaluating in particular the possibilities for building on deep historical foundations and enduring cultural affinities. The association with Europe is based not only on a shared past: with twenty-five members it will be the largest trading bloc in the world, account­ ing for over a quarter of world GDP and 52 percent of the Orga­ nization for Economic Cooperation and Development's (OECD) foreign direct investment outflows. That said, it will be argued here that much greater scope for reshaping Canada's destiny lies across the Pacific, in developing our ties to Asia—the source of most new Canadians, a dynamic center of global development, and a rising nexus of primary political and security interest. But first, the setting. ... In Uncertain Times In the wake of wars in Central Asia and the Middle East, the early years of the 21st century seem to have delivered us to a defining moment, but a moment characterized by extraordinary flux and uncertainty. The post-cold war era is over, with the peace dividend still unpaid. Something quite different is emerg­ ing. Tectonic plates are shifting, altering the geoeconomic land­ scape and strategic climate. All players at the level below that of the sole remaining superpower, and particularly those countries determined to remain at the high end of the new international division of labor across an increasingly polarized international spectrum, are scrambling for position. Even for the most favored, the costs associated with blowback, poor performance or failed governance have grown exponentially—ask any Russian, Thai, Argentine ... or Iraqi. The contours of this period are being conditioned if not determined by the powerful historical current of globalization that is polarizing populations and fracturing communities both within and between states. The erstwhile global village is being transformed into a patchwork of gated communities set amidst a vast hinterland of shantytowns. From the prosperous precincts of Diversifying Canada's Dependence 279 North Toronto to the rutted Six Nations reserve, from the com­ fortable suburbs of San Diego and the sprawling maquiladoras, we see sharper edges, deepening divides, and widening chasms. Dreams of trickle-down notwithstanding, allocative efficiency has not translated into distributional equity or social justice. Large swathes of the planet are grappling with fragmentation, immiseration, and disintegration. The clans are rising as states splinter into razor-like shards. In many instances the alienated and marginalized seek shel­ ter, or succor, or meaning in extremism, religious fundamental­ ism and a variety of virulent forms of ethno-nationalism. Deprived of the disciplines imposed previously by competition...

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