Assessing the Military Balance in Korea

Conventional wisdom has it that North Korea, despite a bankrupt economy and a starving population, maintains one of the largest militaries in the world because its primary goal is “reunification by force.” North Korea’s military is big by many conventional measures. If the quality of fighting power is taken into consideration, however, this military does not look so menacing. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, the North is trailing behind the South in terms of military might, even without factoring in U.S. forces in South Korea and the vicinity. Pyongyang seems to have turned to missiles and weapons of mass destruction (WMD) as a last resort to provide for its survival under increasingly unfavorable international conditions. The current military balance on the peninsula can be described as a “balance of terror” in which each side maintains an asymmetric advantage over the other, resulting in a fragile condition of mutual deterrence. Such a balance is inherently unstable and dangerous, and can be resolved only when the legitimate security concerns of both sides are addressed in a simultaneous, comprehensive, and binding manner.