Japanese Assessments of China’s Military Development

A SIA N PERSPECTIVE,ZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Vol. 31, No. 3, 2007, pp. 183-193. C om m entaryKJIHGFEDCBA J A P A N E S E A S S E S S M E N T S O F C H I N A 'S lkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUT M I L I T A R Y D E V E L O P M E N T * Yasuhiro M atsudaA I n t r o d u c t i o n It is a fact that China has increasingly m odernized its m ili­ tary power. This, in conjunction with China's rising econom ic power, is new to history. It is hence natural that Japan, both as a regional great pow er and as an ally of the United States, heeds close attention to this new reality. The objective here is to review from various perspectives how Japan assesses the m odernization of the Chinese m ilitary. The com m entary takes account of public opinion polls, official inter­ pretation by the governm ent, and experts' opinions. It should be noted that in Japan, it is som ething of a social taboo openly to dis­ cuss m ilitary- or security-related issues. W hen it com es to evaluat­ ing how China m ight react in certain circum stances, the Japanese governm ent has had reservations about taking an official position on China's m ilitary m ight. Even scholarly research in Japan on the Chinese m ilitary is not welcom e. M ost experts on the China m ili­ tary are in fact historians. No com m unity of specialists exists in * An earlier version of this com m entary was presented at the CAPS-RANDCEIP International Conference on PLA Affairs 2006, "The PLA in the Asia-Pacific Region: Im plications for the Evolving Regional Security Order," at Shangri-La Far Eastern Plaza Hotel, Taipei, Taiw an, Decem ber 8-10, 2006. The view s expressed in this com m entary are those solely of the author and do not represent those of the N ational Institute for Defense Studies, the M inistry of Defense, or the governm ent of Japan. 184 Yasuhiro M atsudaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Japan w here governm ent intelligence officers and scholars get involved and build ties. This com m entary thus is am ong the first steps toward bringing together Japanese assessm ents of and reac­ tions to China's m ilitary developm ent.A P u b l i c O p i n i o n o n C h i n a The reality is that no public opinion polls have been conduct­ ed specifically with respect to China's m ilitary. Instead, the Cabi­ net Office under the prim e m inister takes polls on diplom acy, which include citizens' affinity toward m ajor countries. Histori­ cally, the Japanese tend to feel "close" to China, as polls typically showed m ore than 60 percent expressing that view. But the figure plum m eted with the 1989 Tiananm en Square incident, and took a further descending path after 2003. At the end of 2005, the rating of those having a favorable view toward China dropped to only 32.4 percent, while those not having a favorable view reached 63.4 percent (see PONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Figure 1). Although tension over bilateral relations has relaxed since the resignation of Prim e M inister Koizum i Source: Opinion polls on diplomacy, by the Cabinet Office, available at www8. cao.go.jp/ survey/ index-gai.htm l (accessed July 30, 2007). Japanese Assessm ents of C hina's M ilitary D evelopm ent 185ZYXWVUTSRQPO Junichiro in 2006, it is clear that the overall im pression of China am ong average Japanese has sunk dram atically. One poll did specifically ask about a threat from China. According to the joint opinion polls conducted by the PONMLKJIHGFED Yom iuri Shimbun and Gallop in Novem ber 2005, 73 percent of the respon­ dents said that their governm ent's relationship w ith China is "bad," another 72 percent said they "do not trust China," and still another 76 percent indicated that they "feel threatened by China." By contrast, 62 percent of the...