Will Democracy Survive? Afghanistan and the International Community Post-2014

23 Journal of South Asian and Middle Eastern Studies Vol. XXXVIII, No.4, Summer 2015 Will Democracy Survive? Afghanistan and the International Community Post-2014 Aneek Chatterjee* Introduction The withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan at the end of 2014 has opened up many questions: what would be the future of democracy in Afghanistan if American forces are withdrawn completely from the trouble-torn nation? What would be the stance of important stake holders after such withdrawal? Will the war on terrorism, so eloquently eulogized by the American foreign policy mandarins, get a jolt? What about the Taliban-Al Qaida nexus in the region which has the potential to disturb American interests? Will the U.S. and the Taliban enter into any compromise formula? These are a few among many such questions the withdrawal of international forces from Afghanistan has propelled in recent times. In the backdrop of the formation of new governments in Afghanistan (in 2014), and Pakistan (in 2013), and somewhat shaky U.S.-Pak relations in recent times, these questions have assumed greater significance. The survival of a fragile democracy in Afghanistan will depend on the existence of peace in the country in particular, and in the region in general. However, Afghan peace is dependent, as history has proved, on the wish of many key players, like domestic and external ethnic groups and regional and extraregional stake holders. This paper seeks to examine the Afghan scenario after 2014. For a structured analysis this paper would be divided into a few sections beginning with projections of emerging scenarios in post-2014 Afghanistan and dissecting, in following sections these projections, based on ground reality. *Aneek Chatterjee is a Professor and Head of the Department of Political Science, Presidency University, Kolkata, India. Fulbright-Nehru Visiting Professor (2010-11), University of Virginia, U.S.A. Contact: anik.polsc@presiuniv.ac.in 24 1 Blackwill, Robert D. 2011. “Plan B in Afghanistan: Why a De facto Partition is the Least Bad Option”, Foreign Affairs, 90 (1). Post-2014 Afghanistan: Possible Scenarios The withdrawal of international forces is necessary, yet hazardous for this land-locked country. It is necessary because the Afghans should learn to defend themselves in the absence of international forces; it is hazardous because the Afghans have not yet developed enough skills to tackle disruptive forces. Although ethnic loyalties among the Afghan population are very strong, nationalism also penetrates deep into Afghan minds. Therefore, any plan to divide the nation on ethnic grounds, as advocated by U.S. Ambassador Robert D. Blackwill1` would certainly not work out, simply because of the fact that ethnicity in Afghanistan does not favour division of the country. Therefore, a strong security force, backed by regional and international monetary and technical support, is required for Afghanistan. Now the question is, will the Afghan National Security Force (ANSF) be able to defend the country after the complete withdrawal of international forces? The answer in all probability would be negative. In that case, the country may fall into the hands of the Talibans again or may plunge into another civil war. The international community is confused about the future of Afghanistan, and continuous monetary or technical assistance to meet the demands of peace in Afghanistan is almost impossible. The regional and extra-regional stakeholders have their own calculations and interests, and would not act in a responsible manner to build peace in Afghanistan. However, the absence of peace in Afghanistan has far reaching regional, and also, international implications. For the regions of South, West and Central Asia, a disturbed Afghanistan may imply increased domestic and international pressure. For instance, Talibanization of Afghanistan may destabilise Pakistan (as proved once again by the horrific Peshawar killings in December 2014); enhance the risk of terrorist activities in India, Pakistan and other parts of South Asia; lead to increasing involvement of Central Asian Republics, Iran, and Russia in the affairs of Afghanistan, and also increased trouble for these nations (remember the earlier Soviet engagement). Continued disturbance in Afghanistan will impact politics in Iran and adjoining nations of the Middle-east. Civil wars on ethnic lines may undermine the dream of establishing democracy in Afghanistan. American and NATO interests may suffer in...