Iran's Relations with Persian Gulf Arab States—Implications for the United States

12 Journal of South Asian and Middle Eastern Studies Vol. XXXVIII, No.2, Winter 2015 Iran’s Relations with Persian Gulf Arab States—Implications for the United States Gawdat Bahgat* Iran’s Relations with Persian Gulf Arab States—Implications for the United States In his first press conference as the elected president Hassan Rouhani pledged good relations with neighboring countries, which he considered a main priority for his administration. The President stated, “The Persian Gulf has strategic importance both in terms of politics and economy.”1 Rouhani added, “Saudi Arabia is a brother and neighbor with which we have historic, cultural and geopolitical relations.”2 Attending the United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York a few months later, Rouhani presented a more moderate approach than his predecessor Ahmadinejad. The visit was followed by a significant interim agreement with global powers on the country’s nuclear program. Continuing this “charm offensive,” Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif visited four of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states (Kuwait, *Gawdat Bahgat is a professor of National Security Affairs at the National Defense University’s Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Study. He is an Egyptian-born specialist in Middle Eastern policy, particularly Egypt, Iran, and the Gulf region. His areas of expertise include energy security, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, counter-terrorism , Arab-Israeli conflict, North Africa, and American foreign policy in the Middle East. Bahgat’s career blends scholarship with national security practicing. Before joining NESA in December 2009, he taught at different universities. Bahgat published eight books including Energy Security (2011), International Political Economy (2010), Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in the Middle East (2007), Israel and the Persian Gulf (2006), and American Oil Diplomacy (2003). His work has been translated into several foreign languages. Bahgat served as an advisor to several governments and oil companies 1 Press TV, “Rouhani pledges constructive interaction with world via moderate policy,” available at http://www.presstv.com. Accessed June 17, 2013. 2 Alalam, “Rouhani vows confidence-building in foreign affairs,” available at http://en.alalam.ir/news/1485360. Accessed June 17, 2013. 13 Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates) in December 2013. It is too early to assess the success or failure of Iran and its Arab neighboring states overcoming the deep-rooted mistrust and instead to engage in confidencebuilding measures. What is clear, however, is that sectarian and ethnic rivalry (and at times open hostility) has been a defining character in recent years of the Gulf region and indeed the broader Middle East. Geography and history have been the driving forces behind these love-hate relations between the Shiite-Persian Iran and its Sunni-Arab GCC neighbors. The following figures underscore the disparity between the two sides. All figures are from Central Intelligence Agency, World Fact Book, available at https://www.cia.gov. Accessed January 4, 2014. Population figures in all GCC states include large expatriate communities. Thus Iran is much larger than all the GCC states. (Saudi Arabia is larger in area and one third the size in population). Iranian population is much bigger than the combined GCC population. These geographical facts mean the mere size and population of Iran have made its Arab neighbors suspicious of its intentions and accuse Tehran under any political regime (Pahlavi or Islamic) of harboring hegemonic ambitions. History has not helped to alleviate this suspicion. Iran is one of the oldest civilizations in the world and despite its multi ethnic population, has developed a strong sense of nationalism combined with a specific interpretation of Shiism. On the other side of the Gulf, with the exception of Oman, the other five GCC states are relatively young states (Saudi Arabia 1932, Kuwait 1961, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE 1971). Arguably, national identity in these GCC states is generally fragile and competes with tribal and sectarian identities (among others). The presence of Shiite majority in Bahrain and sizable minorities in the other GCC states has further complicated relations with Iran. Country Size in square kilometers Rank in the world Population in millions Rank in the world Iran 1,648,195 18 79,853,000 19 Bahrain 760 188 1,281,332 157 Kuwait 17,818 158...