Lebanon: The Chimera of a Shi'a ‘Third Way’

50 *Rodger Shanahan is a non-resident fellow at the Lowy Institute for International Policy and the author of Clans, Parties and Clerics: the Shi‘a of Lebanon. Journal of South Asian and Middle Eastern Studies Vol. XXXVI, No.3 Spring 2013 Lebanon: The Chimera of a Shi’a ‘Third Way’ Rodger Shanahan* As the wave of popular protests and armed uprisings in the Arab world reshapes regional politics, Iran’s influence in the Levant is coming under enormous pressure as the Assad regime looks increasingly unable to better the armed opposition. But those who see a post-Ba‘athist Damascus as the prelude to the isolation, if not demise of Hizbullah, will be disappointed. Both Lebanese domestic politics and Hizbullah’s role within it are complex, and thoughts of a sudden shifting of support away from the Shi‘a Muslim party by its base because of greater regional demands for political plurality misreads the domestic context within which the Party of God operates. Of course, a post-Assad world is of concern to Hizbullah for several reasons. Syria has provided key logistic resupply routes and the diplomatic, and intelligence and security resources that only a friendly neighboring state can bring to bear. That having been said, the porous Lebanon/Syria border and Hizbullah influence over Rafiq Hariri airport’s security apparatus mean that a great deal of the logistic support could continue although the heavier weaponry would be more difficult to move. Assad’s fall could also reduce Hizbullah’s decisive martial edge over its political rivals. External training and logistic support from a Sunni-aligned Syrian government to the March 14 bloc or independent Sunni groups, or even the tacit acceptance of its conduct on Syrian soil could markedly improve the opposition’s militia capability. A situation which has something resembling military parity between political groupings could destabilize the country, but a Hizbullah less sure of the cost to itself of armed action may also result in a party more likely to countenance negotiated settlements than is currently the case. Finally, the removal of Syrian ‘Alawite support to Hizbullah could embolden Sunni and Christian political opponents of Hizbullah to act more 51 coherently and decisively as a means of pressuring the party into making concessions. This pressure could include courting Hizbullah’s political allies who may sense the winds of opportunity blowing away from Hizbullah, providing more public support to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon in its prosecution of Hizbullah members for their alleged parts in the assassination of Rafiq Hariri, or forcing a cabinet confrontation with the Hizbullah-aligned government in order to make their tenure completely ineffective, in much the same way that Hizbullah did the Siniora government. But the reality of Hizbullah becoming marginalized in a post-Assad world should not be overestimated, given that Hizbullah’s unique position makes it less susceptible to outside forces than many give it credit for. Its key strengths remain impressive—strong domestic communal support and lack of any communal alternative, and ideological and financial links with Iran that are deeper, and of more importance to its long-term survival than its mutually supportive relationship with the Assad regime. The party remains popular with large sections of the Lebanese Shi‘a community, particularly in the south, the southern suburbs of Beirut and the Biqa‘. Hizbullah’s core supporters are appreciative of the role the Party of God has played in moving the Shi‘a community from the periphery to the center of Lebanese political power. The manner in which this political rise has been achieved however has meant that attitudes towards the party have become increasingly polarized amongst and between Lebanon’s complex myriad of sectarian communities. There is a growing feeling amongst many non-Shi‘a (along with some Shi‘a) Lebanese, that Hizbullah regards itself as being beyond the rules of domestic political or legal accountability and too willing to resort to force, or the threat of it, to protect or advance its own interests. Their takeover of west Beirut in 2008, as well as threats against those involved in the Special Tribunal for Lebanon indictments, are cases in point. For all the concerns about the power...