Uniting the Opposition: Reform, Repression, and the Rise of the Cocaleros in Bolivia

Bolivia's 2005 presidential election brought to power Juan Evo Morales, an indigenous coca farmer (cocalero) and leader of the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party. Morales unexpectedly triumphed against Bolivia's political establishment and competing opposition parties. In the context of a fragmented opposition, what explains the rise of the MAS in Bolivia? This paper draws on social movement theory to account for the emergence of a united opposition under the MAS banner. It provides a group-level analysis that focuses on power dynamics between Evo Morales, representing the cocalero unions, and rival social leaders in the indigenous and labor movements. The main finding is that top-down government reform and repression aimed at weakening social resistance shifted power in favor of the cocalero sector, thus uniting opposition forces behind the MAS.