Against Stealing First Base

During the 2019 season, the independent Atlantic League, with input and support from Major League Baseball, implemented a package of experimental rules designed to speed the game and create excitement. For example, the league employed a Doppler radar plate umpire for its 2019 All Star game,¹ a preview of the coming use of technology for balls and strikes.

The package included one radical experiment²: Any pitch on any count not "caught in flight" by the catcher was a live ball, allowing, although not requiring, a batter to run to first base or to be put out trying.³ People called it "stealing first base."

The play was described as an "extension" or "creative reinterpretation"⁴ of the uncaught third-strike rule, applied to the entire at-bat. It added another way to reach first base, apart from the ever-increasing "true outcomes" of home run or walk, while imposing a potential cost on a pitcher with bad control or a catcher who failed to perform his expected skill of catching a pitched ball. The play originally was scored a fielder's choice, which provided no statistical incentive for batters to take advantage; the league changed the rule to score it a base-on-balls if the batter reached first safely and a fielder's choice if the attempt failed.⁵

Without mincing words, this rule was and remains a terrible idea. It has no precedent or analogue in existing rules. It is inconsistent with baseball's underlying structure. And it will create confusion for everyone, to the disadvantage of the defense. One commentator wondered whether the rule's authors understood or liked baseball, which is a fair criticism.

There are, famously, seven (or eight, depending on how you count defensive interference) ways for a batter to reach base⁶ (unless you fine-grain it into twenty-three). All are triggered by a significant event—the batter putting a pitched ball into play, the batter attempting but failing to put a pitched ball into play, the pitcher being unable to throw some number of pitches for strikes, or a pitched ball hitting the batter. A batter generally does not reach base on an otherwise-not-significant pitch that is not put into play or attempted to be put into play. And none of the seven ways is random or dependent on an unforeseen unilateral choice by the batter.

Official Baseball Rule 5.05 identifies thirteen situations in which a batter becomes a runner.⁷ All are compulsory. If a designated thing happens, the batter must become a runner; he may not choose to remain at the plate and keep hitting. A batter cannot "decline" a base on balls or hit by pitch; a batter cannot decide that he did not like the fair ball that he hit and that he wants to try again. Unlike with baserunners, the rules do not recognize a batter running "at his own risk," which connotes a choice to attempt to advance to the next base or to remain in place. For example, when the Infield Fly Rule is invoked and the batter called out, the "runners may advance at their own risk"⁸; they are not forced to run, have the choice to run or stay put, and must be tagged out if they elect to run. This is never the case for the batter/runner; this is why he is always forced at first, while other runners must be tagged out on certain plays.

The "stealing first" rule introduces the lone instance of the batter choosing to run or to continue hitting. But that batter choice operates in confusing and inconsistent ways.

Although the batter need not run, the play at first remains a force—the defense can put him out by tagging the runner or by tagging first base. It also unclear when the play is on. The batter presumably must make some attempt to run to first, although the rule does not describe or define what constitutes a sufficient attempt. A possible analogy is to a batter overrunning first base. He cannot be tagged out while off the base...