In lieu of an abstract, here is a brief excerpt of the content:

  • Will China Unite or Divide the World?
  • Walter C. Clemens Jr. (bio)
Kent E. Calder, Super Continent: The Logic of Eurasian Integration (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2019).
Jiwei Ci, Democracy in China: The Coming Crisis (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2019).
Mara Hvistendahl, The Scientist and the Spy: A True Story of China, the FBI, and Industrial Espionage (New York: Riverhead Books, 2020).

Continentalism over Atlanticism?

Super Continent: The Logic of Eurasian Integration, by Johns Hopkins University professor Kent E. Calder, points to a basically harmonious future in which material interdependence will generate mutual gain from Bangkok to Glasgow. China will again become the Middle Kingdom as its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) drives and sustains this movement toward peace and prosperity.

Calder argues that an evolving “continentalism” is superseding the Atlanticism of the past seven decades. He acknowledges many risks and uncertainties in this venture. Still, he writes that the underlying geography and resource endowments of Eurasia give the continent a potential for prominence in world affairs as a coherent unit in the long term. While Western Europe and North America have long enjoyed natural gas pipeline networks, cross-border power lines, and transnational rail connections, such unifying factors are just now taking shape in Eurasia. Infrastructure investment is transforming the continent’s political and economic life. Deregulation in logistics is making freight-forwarding cheaper and faster across Eurasia. China and Russia are finding common ground in energy distribution as well as in opposition to US policies. The European Union and the Middle East are cooperating in developing ties across the old Silk Road. [End Page 343]

Calder’s case is strongly argued and supported by twenty-five graphics—figures, maps, and tables—showing many kinds of supporting evidence ranging from Chinese investments in Europe to China’s domination of overland routes westward to the country’s multiple pipeline options. The graphics provide hard facts that clarify and illuminate the book’s main arguments.

All of these new investments and linkages generate prospects for a major transformation—what Calder calls a “Crossover Point” from the previous open liberal order to new forms of global governance and political economy. This system change is driven by the rise of China and by developments in energy, logistics, finance, and globalism. The argument parallels that by Peter Frankopan in The New Silk Roads: The Present and Future of the World (2019). Calder says that the hegemony of one superpower is passé and could be replaced by co-hegemony or governance by multiple powers.

A Bloomberg “Balance of Power” report (2019) seems to support much of Calder’s thesis:

Chinese President Xi Jinping is suddenly sitting pretty in Asia, thanks largely to missteps by two of his biggest rivals: U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Modi abruptly pulled out of a 16-nation regional trade deal yesterday, removing a key counterbalance to China. That’s bad news for Japan, which urged India to stay in. U.S. influence also took a hit from Trump’s no-show at a regional summit in Bangkok. Southeast Asian leaders responded by snubbing a meeting with National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien. What’s more, China’s asking price is becoming clear for Xi to head to the U.S. and sign a deal centered on agricultural purchases that Trump is seeking ahead of next year’s election . . . . Beijing wants tariffs scrapped on as much as $360 billion of Chinese imports before Xi gets on the plane. The Chinese leader made a pledge to a trade expo today that the phase-one deal would lead to other measures to open China’s markets. But investors are doubtful: The European Chamber said many agreements reached last year saw “no follow-through.” Still, with Trump and Modi on the sidelines, Xi may not need to worry.

So What Could Go Wrong to Wreck This Infrastructure-driven Tectonic Shift to Super-continentalism?

China’s economic engine may stall and fail to deliver. Many existing problems, both within and beyond China’s borders, may become more [End Page 344] acute—excessive centralization, an aging population, water shortages, food deficits (Waldron...

pdf

Share