Fear and Learning in the Arab Uprisings

Massive and sustained popular uprisings in Sudan, Algeria, Iraq, and Lebanon in 2019 have shown that the discouragement and fears bred by events since the 2011 Arab Spring have put only a temporary brake on the efforts of publics in the Arab world to push for change. As the movements in Sudan and Algeria in particular illustrate, many participants seem to believe that they can improve their odds by drawing on the experiences of neighboring countries, as well as the histories of their own societies. Among the most important lessons cited by protesters so far are these: Popular pressure for change must be massive and sustained to be effective; transition plans designed by the military—particularly proposals for quick elections—can be a trap; protesters should be wary of involvement by Arab state "frenemies"; and going forward requires moving beyond fear.