Four Dates That Have Shaped Today's Middle East and What They Mean for Policy

Today's Middle East is profoundly shaped by four pivotal moments in the region's modern history. Exploring the effects of these pivots should contribute to a better understanding of the region's structural and systemic ills and could provide guidance in devising appropriate policies for rebuilding stability, human security, and better governance in the region. Of course, examining modern history through "benchmark dates" is only one among many approaches. Buzan and Lawson (2012) provide a rich discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of this approach.¹ In this essay, I am highlighting four dates in which critically important shifts took place, not to claim that the drivers and factors that affected this change were restricted to these dates, nor to assert that these are the only main dates that matter. Rather, they are guideposts on which to focus and explore key dynamics that have affected the region since the 1970s, as well as handholds to explore policy options that might address some of the factors that were highlighted in these four dates.

1979

The Middle East is still living in the shadow of 1979. That year was marked by five key developments.

The Islamic Revolution in Iran

The revolution in Iran had myriad effects. It turned one of the largest powers in the Middle East from a conservative to a revolutionary revisionist power. It declared open hostility to the United States, Israel, and most of its Arab neighbors, particularly the Arab Gulf monarchies, automatically creating several conflict systems in the region. It catapulted political Islam to the forefront of political life, helping to replace the leftist secular nationalism that had dominated political life in the region since World War II; this gave energy to both Sunni and Shiite Islamist movements as it showed that an Islamist movement could defeat an entrenched ruler backed by the world's superpower.

In addition, the new revolutionary republic carried a revolutionary message beyond its borders and invested in building asymmetric fighting capacities as part of both its revolutionary mission and its advanced self-defense. The new republic particularly considered Shiites around the region as its own constituency; and many Shiites in the region, marginalized in their own countries, were inspired and empowered by the revolution in Iran and looked to Tehran for leadership. This helped erode local nationalist identities in favor of sectarian ones, and helped create organizations like Hezbollah. Later on, it would give rise to other Iran-backed Shiite armed groups in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, and Yemen.

The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan

This invasion helped create the conditions of both a failed state and open-ended civil war in that country—conditions that still pertain today. In addition, it triggered cooperation between the United States and Saudi Arabia to train, arm, and further radicalize the Sunni jihadists fighting opposition to the Soviets; this helped create the radical jihadist movement that gave birth to al-Qaeda and ISIS and still menaces the region and the world today. The weaponization of radical Sunnism fed off of, and interacted in an escalating spiral with, the weaponization of Shiism that the Tehran revolution had brought about.

The Takeover of the great Mosque in Mecca

In late 1979, Sunni Islamic radicals forcibly took over the Great Mosque in Mecca, challenging the religious legitimacy of the Saud ruling family and calling for its overthrow. The ruling family recognized that their religious legitimacy was being challenged not only by Shiite Iran, but also by Sunnni fundamentalists. This spurred the family to pivot, both in domestic and foreign policy, toward a much more Islamist profile, underscoring its central role in protecting the holy cities of Mecca and Medina and propagating an austere and xenophobic Wahhabism at home and abroad.

Egypt's Separate Peace with Israel

Sadat's separate peace with Israel isolated Cairo and ended three decades of Egyptian leadership and dominance in the Arab—and, to some degree, the Muslim—world. Egypt had championed a largely modernist secular nationalist ideology; as Egypt lost the mantle of leadership, it was eagerly picked up by Saudi Arabia and the...