Is Post-1945 Europe an Aberration?

After more than half a century of unimpeded integration, Europe is now unprepared for the geostrategic shifts that are undermining the post–World War II order. As several European countries face contentious domestic politics and a rise in populism, it is not at all certain the leadership on the European or national levels can push the bloc to forge a robust foreign, security, and defense policy to protect what it has achieved since 1945. It is not even certain if the European project is sustainable. Much will depend on Germany and the United States.

The year 2019 should have ushered in months of celebrations and a sense of achievement for the European Union (EU). The previous three decades had seen several extraordinary events. Thirty years ago, on November 9, 1989, the Berlin Wall that divided Europe was torn down. The Euro currency, introduced in several EU countries in January 1999, turned twenty. That same year, in April 1999, three former Warsaw Pact countries—Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic—joined NATO. Five years later, in March 2004, NATO grew to include the three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, as well as Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria, and Romania.¹ As if that were not enough cause for celebration, in May 2004, eight former communist countries—Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia—as well as Cyprus and Malta joined the EU.² These developments led to a united, more integrated Europe and a strong Euro-Atlantic alliance. And just to add to the anniversaries, NATO turned 70 in April.

Each of these anniversaries offered reasons to celebrate how the Euro-Atlantic institutions were painstakingly built after 1945. The creation of these institutions had been supported and encouraged by Dean Acheson, America's indomitable secretary of state.³ He had the strategic foresight to back the rapprochement between France and what was then West Germany and to support the establishment of the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), the precursor of today's European Union. The ECSC, which also included Italy, Belgium, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands, was to end the centuries of war and enmity between France and Germany.⁴

This step was the beginning of Europe's post—World War II peace project, anchored on America's security umbrella. This military and security dependence on the United States worked extremely well during the Cold War era when the West's strategic goals, its values, and its sense of common purpose were all based on an ideological struggle with the Soviet Union. The United States was Europe's protector. This was not a one-way street. Besides providing a bulwark against the Soviet Union, Europe worked with the United States to strengthen multilateral institutions. Europe also played an immensely important role through its enlargement policy, which the United States welcomed. By admitting Greece, Spain, Portugal, and later the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, the EU strengthened these fragile democracies and brought stability to the region.

But it was Europe's dependency on American security—or "free-riding" as some US officials would in recent years declare—that became a major point of contention. NATO's European allies had plenty of warnings from US administrations for not spending enough on defense or for failing to take their security seriously. But with the Trump administration, the criticism is especially harsh.⁵ The difference this time is that Trump sees NATO as a transactional relationship and not one based on shared values or one that represented a Western military alliance. Now, as the European project faces sharp internal challenges from stalled integration and a resurgence of populism, the transatlantic relationship is fraying. Europe's post-1945 architecture is increasingly fragile.

2019: Integration Stalls as Britain, France, and Germany Waver

Instead of a year characterized by milestone anniversaries, 2019 found the European Union's three biggest players, Britain, France, and Germany, immersed in fractious domestic politics.

In Britain, Brexit negotiations threatened to plunge the country into crisis. British prime minister Theresa May sought to negotiate a Brexit deal with the EU that would save her leadership and her beleaguered...