Trade, Productivity and Employment Nexus: An Examination in Post-Reforms India

In the backdrop of India's jobless economic growth since the macroeconomic reforms of the 1990's, this study goes into the inter-relations among growth of productivity, employment and trade. Most of the studies on productivity in Indian manufacturing indicate a surge in the post reforms period though the individual manufacturing groups achieve varying growth. In the recent period, TFP growth in the sector is attributed to technology-based intermediate imports. Changing patterns of trade, especially export composition, have contributed to low employment generation. Growth in productivity and lack of growth in employment are thus explained by changing composition of trade. This paper starts by defining alternative measures of labor productivity growth, namely 'industry' labor productivity and 'system' labor productivity drawing on World Input-Output Database (WIOD). KLEMS database for India is also used for employment data. The time period for the study is from 1995 to 2014. Trend growth rates are estimated for alternative productivity measures, employment and output. The growth estimates show rapid productivity growth while the rates vary according to the labor intensity in production. It is found that productivity growth, particularly in labor intensive sectors, has been slow. India's share in world trade has been low and rising slowly. Additionally, the share in world trade of leather and textiles is very small. The composition of trade in India is biased towards the manufacturing sector as a whole while the labor-intensive sectors are neglected. Another emerging pattern of India's trade is escalating import of intermediate inputs. To establish the nexus between trade and productivity growth, a vertical specialization index has been estimated by using Hummel's formulation. The estimated result from panel regression with fixed effects establishes positive nexus between vertical specialization and productivity growth. It is argued that India needs to circumvent jobless growth by a balanced approach to job creation and productivity growth. A conscious policy of vertical specialization in products that draw on the country's vast reserve of un-skilled and semi-skilled labor can go a long way in this direction.