Uneven Centuries: Economic Development of Turkey since 1820 by Şevket Pamuk (review)

Uneven Centuries by Şevket Pamuk is a major contribution to the fields of economics, economic history, and development. Pamuk does not restrict the analysis to just economics but takes the high road, studying human development, health, education, income distribution, and productivity. Pamuk relies mostly on his own research while also drawing usefully upon the work of scholars from many other fields. His findings and analysis are presented clearly, succinctly, and objectively.

The book is probably the most comprehensive extant study on the topic at hand. Furthermore, Pamuk's every argument is rigorously developed and supported by ample data—some of it original. For example, Turkey's gross domestic product per capita since 1820 is presented the first time in this book (p. 5) and is complemented by an elaborate discussion of issues related to the data (pp. 29–31). In examining Turkey's development, Pamuk does not confine himself strictly to observations about the economy, as if the latter exists in a vacuum. Instead, his analysis of the economy is enriched by relevant details he provides about the institutional setting and the interplay between politics and the economy. Another strength of the book is Pamuk's depiction of the economy as a continuously living organism.

Pamuk's account of Turkey's economic development and institutional changes proceeds chronologically, organized into four periods: the Ottoman Empire (1820–1914), the World Wars (1914–50), the post-War era (1950–80), and contemporary Turkey (1980–2015). The author devotes separate chapters to each of these periods, discussing in depth the dominant economic model followed at the time. The first period realized a growing specialization in agriculture under open economic conditions. The second was marked by a "Transition from empire to the nationstate and an inward-looking economy during a difficult period that included two world wars and the great depression" (p. 10). This period was also defined by the long-term legacies of the wars, which led to the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire and the establishment of new states (p. 166). The third period was characterized by inward-oriented development. Import substitution industrialization (ISI) led by the private sector was the major policy embraced during the post–World War II period (p. 204). Migration from rural to urban areas is a natural result of these policies. The hallmarks of the fourth period were neoliberal policies and globalization. In all these periods, Pamuk compares Turkey's economic policies and performance to those of other developing countries, highlighting similarities between them. Pamuk employs elements of game theory, albeit without using formulas, to study the interaction between formal and informal sectors. He stresses the importance of interactions among institutions, including global ones, and the emergence of new institutions. He offers compelling explanations of budget deficits, money, borrowing and debt, and default (p. 106), showing how these economic travails relate to military tensions and conflicts. This discussion provides interesting insights, especially given that growing foreign debt is a major worry for all emerging market economies in 2019.

Pamuk also shows that Turkey's longterm economic performance has approximated both the world and the developing country averages during the past two centuries and therefore "offers more insights into the experiences of other developing countries" (p. 316). Pamuk argues that economic factors are important in understanding the long-term growth but so too are "social and political environment as well as the historical causes" (p. 317). In this way Pamuk points to the fact that economies are made of many components. Implicitly he reminds us that achieving a deep understanding of any country requires that the researcher study all its dimensions. In its comparative and comprehensive approach, Uneven Centuries is full of lessons for policy-makers and economists.

In my estimation, no one except Pamuk has the background and expertise to write a book as impressive as this. Uneven Centuries deserves to be read by economists, economic historians, and anyone interested in economic and human development, regardless of the...