The Predictors of Pre-Conviction Decisions in China: A Statistical Analysis Based on M City Court

Many studies conducted in the West have found that a defendant’s demographic characteristics affect pre-conviction decisions on his or her criminal release or detention. Few researchers, however, have addressed whether demographic factors are associated with such pre-conviction decision making in China. Using empirical data from the courts of M City, N Province, we analyzed the relationship between a defendant’s demographic factors and pre-conviction dispositions in China using the ordered probit and ordinary least squares methods. We found both legal factors, such as criminal record and crime severity, and extralegal demographic factors, such as a defendant’s gender, age, and employment status, to have a significant effect on pre-conviction decisions (e.g., the severity of coercive measures and duration of custodial measures). Our research contributes to the literature by incorporating new variables (the severity and duration of pre-conviction measures) and extending previous research to a non-Western context.