Converting Convergence into Cooperation: The United States and India in South Asia

Executive summary

This article examines how the U.S. and India, driven by their converging concerns over China's rise in the Indo-Pacific, are presented with an opportunity to deepen their cooperation in South Asia.

Main argument

Seeking to counter China's expansionism in South Asia, India's traditional sphere of influence, New Delhi now partners with several "like-minded" countries to offer an alternative source of infrastructure development and connectivity initiatives. This has opened a window of opportunity for the U.S. to cooperate with India in the region. Based on historical case studies in Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar, with new evidence from primary sources, this article shows how different strategic priorities, capabilities, and perceptional challenges have at times hindered U.S. and Indian policies from aligning. At the same time, however, the article dispels the common assumption that the U.S. and India have always been locked in an inevitably hostile relationship across the region. A detailed analysis of both states' approaches to the region since the 1950s shows that, despite significant challenges and differences, there have been instances of policy coordination that are relevant for today's attempts to facilitate cooperation amid convergence. To work together more efficiently and counter China's rising leverage in South Asia, India and the U.S. will need to learn from past interactions and focus on their communication and coordination of policies in the region.

Policy implications

• • The U.S. and India must continue improving communication channels to exchange assessments about the region, especially during crises. This is particularly important to prevent China or third states from playing the two off against each other.

• • India and the U.S. should engage in a dialogue to flesh out what sustainable connectivity means in practice, including developing infrastructure and setting criteria to allow businesses to benefit from economic liberalization and the rule of law in South Asia.

• • The U.S. and India must keep investing in public diplomacy and outreach across South Asia, stimulating wider domestic debates—especially in Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka—about the long-term costs of China's influence.

In response to China's rising involvement in its South Asian periphery, India has been revising its long-held policy to limit the influence of extraregional powers in its smaller neighboring states. Although traditionally reluctant to encourage the presence of outsiders in its sphere of influence, India now seeks to join forces with "like-minded" powers from outside the region and even multilateral organizations. For example, it now partners with Japan on joint infrastructure projects in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Through its Act East and "neighborhood first" policies, New Delhi is focusing on regional initiatives to increase economic and security integration.

India's new collaborative disposition also opens up a window of opportunity for regional cooperation between the United States and India. While China's expanding presence around the Indian periphery has emerged as a common concern, the levels of cooperation between the United States and India in South Asia still remain low. Except for Pakistan and Afghanistan, dialogue and cooperation between the two states regarding the rest of the region have rarely taken place, despite an overall flourishing strategic partnership since the 2000s. This contrasts with deepening cooperation in several other issue-areas, such as nuclear energy, counterterrorism, and maritime security, all of which had been points of bilateral contention even after the end of the Cold War. In some instances, U.S. and Indian policies in the region have even diverged, including after the end of Sri Lanka's civil war in 2009 and during the most recent refugee crisis in Myanmar in 2017 and 2018.

Despite their broadly converging approaches across the Indo-Pacific in recent years, what obstacles hinder U.S.-India cooperation in South Asia's small states, and how can they be overcome? Given their different alignments during much of the Cold War, the United States and India sometimes clashed in the region, most notably during the East Pakistan/Bangladesh conflict in...