Historical and Theoretical Perspectives on the Rise of China: Long Cycles, Power Transitions, and China’s Ascent

In this article I borrow insights into repeated patterns of global political change from long cycle and power transition theories and apply them to the rise of China. China is on a trajectory to become the largest economy in terms of total economic size, but viewed through the prism of those insights, it has considerable weaknesses or barriers to overcome in order to become a global hegemonic power. Nonetheless, the rise of China could produce significant instability in the interstate system as it develops into a revisionist power. It is too early to conclude that China is a revisionist power, but some signs suggest China has revisionist aims in the Asia Pacific and could become one in the future. In this context, restraining the growth of Beijing’s dissatisfaction with the current international order by accommodating it through appropriate roles and status must be considered more seriously by Washington. Another option is for Washington to enhance and upgrade its military capabilities in the Asia Pacific, but its ability to do so successfully hinges on its ability to reinvigorate the US economy.