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Drug Violence and Migration Flows : Lessons from the Mexican Drug War
- Journal of Human Resources
- University of Wisconsin Press
- Volume 53, Number 3, Summer 2018
- pp. 717-749
- Article
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ABSTRACT:
We examine the effect of the increase in violence that Mexico experienced after launching an aggressive campaign against drug-trafficking organizations on immigration into the United States. We instrument for violence using electoral cycles and consider two channels through which violence impacts migration: local and transit violence. Violence at the municipality of residence increased migration. Conversely, violence on the route to the United States deterred individuals from migrating. Back-of-the-envelope calculations show that between 2007 and 2012, local and transit violence had an overall positive effect on migration. Violence was responsible for a 1.53 percentage point increase in the migration rate.