Myanmar in 2017: Crises of Ethnic Pluralism Set Transitions Back

The challenges of ethnic pluralism dominated Myanmar's landscape in 2017, with the long-simmering discord in Rakhine State escalating to large-scale violence and an unprecedented exodus of refugees, just as the government's peace negotiations with ethnic armed groups ground to a standstill. Entering her second year in office, State Counsellor, National League for Democracy (NLD) leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi promised to rule "Together With the People" for development, peace and reconciliation.¹ As the year wore on, she faced widespread international criticism for how she and the Defence Services managed the evolving Rakhine State crisis, while domestic popular support grew around the Rohingya issue and regional allies — especially China — rallied behind the military and the State Counsellor. It was a retrograde year for the history books. The feel-good narrative about Myanmar's remarkable transitions was replaced with the kind of denunciations by UN officials and others of "ethnic cleansing" and "crimes against humanity" reminiscent of military rule from 1988 to 2011.

First Anniversary Woes

Late March marked the NLD's one-year anniversary of the historic and peaceful transfer of power from one political party to another — the first since independence from Britain in 1948. For all its flaws, the 2008 constitution established a degree of predictability and a structure of government largely accepted in principle by both the army and the newly empowered democracy movement led by the NLD. Thanks to reforms begun in 2011, thousands of people have used their new political freedoms to vent frustrations, expose abuses and demand action.

By late March, grumbles of discontent were heard as observers noted the NLD had accomplished little more than a reduction in the number of ministries, but notably had made few policy moves in the direction of improving the economy, increasing jobs, offering crucial services, building infrastructure or resolving the violence that plagued the western and northeastern parts of the country. When the majority of the electorate voted for the NLD in 2015, it was likely a vote against the old dictatorship and in support of the democracy movement. However, it was also an expression of desire for material progress. Identifiable, concrete signs of improvement in everyday lives had not yet materialized by the anniversary-mark, nor through the rest of 2017.²

On 30 March, in a televised address on the state of the union, State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi reacted defensively: "I have said since the beginning that I would try my best", continuing, "if people think my best effort is not enough for them and if there are any other persons or organizations who can do better than us, we are ready to step back".³ Domestic pressure aside, she was likely stung by a barrage of one-year anniversary criticisms coming from the West, particularly over her inability or unwillingness to intervene on behalf of Rohingya victims of clearance operations carried out by the military in Rakhine State.

The fact that the NLD won only nine out of nineteen seats in the 1 April by-election suggested to some observers that the party's popularity had declined, particularly in minority ethnic areas. However, it should be noted that the party only lost two seats it held before. Six of the seats the NLD did not win were in two conflict-affected townships in Shan State, where elections had not previously taken place for security reasons and where support for the Shan party was very strong. Elsewhere, the victory of U Aye Maung, leader of the Arakan National Party — the main Rakhine Buddhist political party — in a Pyithu Hluttaw seat brought to Naypyitaw an experienced, hard-line political operative who has promoted Rakhine nationalist views in the parliament and beyond.

Background to the Rakhine/Rohingya Crisis of 2017

Rakhine State has long been home to tensions between Buddhist and Muslim communities, and these pressures have periodically erupted into deadly violence.⁴ At the heart of the tensions are three axes of deeply felt grievances. Along all three lie multifarious disputes over identity, land, historical narratives, and economic...