The ASEAN Miracle: A Catalyst for Peace by Kishore Mahbubani and Jeffrey Sng (review)

Published in the year in which the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) celebrates its golden jubilee, Kishore Mahbubani and Jeffrey Sng opine that ASEAN deserves the Nobel Peace Prize on the grounds that it has been the most successful regional organization next to the European Union (EU). Stripped of its hyperbole, the book presents a highly readable account of ASEAN’s achievements, its remarkable consolidation of interstate peaceful coexistence in a geographical area previously wracked by political turmoil in, arguably, the most culturally diverse region of the world. The authors also demonstrate persuasively the indispensable role of ASEAN in the Asia-Pacific region as a foil to check major power excesses. Although the authors lament the lack of recognition of the “ASEAN miracle” by contemporary observers, they are quick to add that ASEAN is not without its weaknesses. Let me examine some of the book’s truth claims and point out some of its weaknesses and finally present my own view on ASEAN.

ASEAN’s success was due to fear, luck and leadership (Chapter Two). Political divisions engendered by the Cold War were resolved when the fear of communism was overcome by the absorption of the communist states into the regional body in the second half of the 1990s. Such a move demonstrated the wisdom of its founding leaders to “hang together or hang separately” in the words of Singapore’s former foreign minister, S. Rajaratnam. Having trumped communism and embraced the market economy, ASEAN was on its way to develop a dense regional network for an “ecosystem of peace” (p. 48 ff.). ASEAN initiatives included the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in 1994, the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) in 1996, ASEAN Plus Three (APT) in 1997 and the East Asia Summit (EAS) in 2005.

The book shows that dealing with the major powers has been both ASEAN’s forte as well as its Achilles heel (Chapter Three). Mahbubani draws on his considerable experience as one of Singapore’s foremost diplomats to deliver a hard-hitting analysis highlighting how major powers such the United States, China, Japan and India could have done better in dealing with ASEAN. He singles out the EU and its Myanmar policy as being misconceived. In Mahbubani’s opinion, Myanmar’s transition to democracy is an indictment of the EU policy of sanctions and a vindication of ASEAN’s stance of continuous engagement with the military regime (p. 115).

A major criticism of the authors regarding the US–ASEAN relationship was that short-term domestic US considerations often outweighed ASEAN’s long-term interests. Even the ASEAN-friendly administration of US President Barack Obama cancelled several trans-Pacific trips and failed to capitalize on his special relationship with Indonesia. Mahbubani is emphatic that America should also refrain from using ASEAN as a “weapon” against China and, in particular, embarrass China regarding the South China Sea dispute (pp. 94–96).

With respect to China, the authors pose three questions: Is China better off with a weak or strong ASEAN? Would China benefit from a more positive bilateral relationship? How should ASEAN adjust to China as the emerging paramount power? The discussion of issues around the first two questions were useful and conclude that ASEAN could and should be used as a platform for China to hone its diplomacy and to develop an effective model of major power engagement with middle and small powers. As to how ASEAN should respond to the counterfactual of “China as Number One”, the book falls rather short, merely indicating that individual ASEAN countries have reached different conclusions about how relations with China should be managed and will act accordingly to their own perceived national interests (pp. 108ff).

An important development since the book was published has been China’s aggressive push of President Xi Jinping’s “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) initiative. ASEAN countries are responding individually to this initiative rather than as a group. Myanmar has been a beneficiary...