Population Change in the Northwest Territories and Some Geopolitical Consequences

Population Change in the Northwest Territories and Some Geopolitical Consequences ROBERT M. BONE One of the critical factors determining the direction and speed of political evolution in the Canadian North is population. With both territories seeking provincial status and some native organizations calling for independent regional governments, the strength of these cases must be evaluated in terms of population. While there is no magic figure associated with the granting of provincial status, the case of the two territorial governments would be greatly strengthened if they had an equivalent population to that of the smallest province. The 1976 census provides a measure of this demographic gap - the combined population of the Yukon and the Northwest Territories was nearly 63 ,OOO or just about half that of Prince Edward Island which, with just under 120,000 residents, is the smallest province in Confederation. I Since Confederation, the geopolitical map of Canada has changed several times as new lands have become provinces. Most of these changes occurred in the West where, for example, the prairie provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan were carved out of the old Northwest Territories in 1905. This act, and the later ceding of subarctic lands to Manitoba in 1912, left the Canadian West north of 60° as "territories." Whether or not the federal government would allow the same processes to generate polar provinces is a separate question. Here, the focus is on the number of resipents in the Northwest Territories, which," in the past, has inhibited progress towards provincial status. Isolation from the industrial and agricultural heartland of North America is at the root of the development and settlement problem. The Canadian North is an enormous land mass with few people. With most Canadians huddled near the American Journal ofCanadian Studies Vol. 16, No. 2 (Ete 1981 Summer) border, our vast northern territory, stretching from the edge of Canada's ecumene to the islands of the Arctic Ocean, represents the most sparsely settled region of Canada. This emptiness reflects the peripheral geographical position of northern Canada. In the past, remoteness from markets and a weak infrastructure, as well as marginal agricultural resources, had inhibited settlement.2 Population predictions, based on past trends and an estimate of future conditions that will affect the vital processes, such as mortality, fertility, migration, marriage, family size, etc., are more easily devised for developed regions. Here, the pattern of economic and social change is usually predictable and regular, while in a frontier area this same pattern is often subject to sudden and sometimes unforeseen fluctuations. For example, recent reports have produced projections for the Northwest Territories which have called for rates of population increase well above the average for Canada; these same reports warn the reader that the narrow economic base of the Northwest Territories is vulnerable to rapid economic changes and that these changes could have a drastic impact upon migration and the rate of population increase.3 With this in mind, I propose to examine the current economic and social forces generating recent population in the Northwest Territories. This examination will aid the reader in assessing the likelihood of a substantial increase in the numbers of this northern region of Canada in the early 1980s. Past Growth For nearly three decades, the population of the Northwest Territories has increased rapidly - at an average annual rate of over 4 percent. Since 1951, its population has nearly tripled, while Prince Edward Island's population has increased only marginally. If these demographic trends continued, the Northwest Territories would eventually have a population similar in size to the smallest province in Confederation. Adding fuel to this argument, a recent report by Professor 81 Table 1 Population and Percentage Change from 1951 to 1976 Prince Year i951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 Northwest Territories 16,004 19,313 22,998 28,738 34,807 42,609 Annual Average Change (OJo) Edward Island 98,429 99,285 Annual Average Change (OJo) 4.1 . 3.8 5.0 4.2 4.5 Source: Canada Year Book 1976-77, p. 186. Hamelin predicted a continued strong growth in the ten year period beginning in 1976 for the Northwest Territories. At the average annual rate of 3.2 percent he predicted...