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Wishing and Hoping: The 1993 Federal Election Elections are very much about hope - that through the electoral process democratic politics can generate creative and constructive solutions to our social and economic challenges. In 1984, many Canadians hoped that following the British and American neoconservative strategies would unleash individual economic initiative to generate general economic prosperity."A decade later, the results of the 1993 election suggest that Canadians had concluded that this strategy was wishful thinking. Canada appears to have rejected the Conservatives ' nagging and negative posture, hoping that a Liberal government might actively, positively, and humanely address Canada's lingering economic malaise. But this interpretation may also be wishful thinking, for the broad contours of the electoral result are terribly misleading, understating certain developments while exaggerating others. To begin, the election certainly demonstrated the existence of a massive Canadian disenchantment with the Conservative Party and in particular with its gloomy predictions of long-term unemployment and its obsessive preoccupation with deficit-cutting struggles. Its vote fell by a staggering 60 percent - from 43 percent of the electorate in 1988 to 16 percent in 1993. It lost 99 percent of its seats. The primary reason for the party's precipitous decline was the deep crossregional disenchantment with the Conservatives for failing to deliver on the promises which had led to its electoral support in 1984 and 1988. In Quebec, the promise of constitutional renewal was followed by the failed Meech and Charlottetown processes. Faced with the Chretien option, Quebecers voted massively for the Bloc Quebecois's sovereignty alternative. In Ontario, the promise of economic prosperity through free trade and market reforms generated only massive job loss and a sense of economic despair. Faced with four more years of hopelessness and a discredited provincial New Democratic Party, Ontario voted overwhelmingly for the Liberal option of moderate economic intervention. In the West, the promise of increased fiscal prudence and a greater say in national affairs was followed by the perception - fostered by the CF-18 affair and the rising deficit - that nothing had changed. The West chose to send a regionally focused set of MPs to Ottawa to realize its objectives. The abandonment of the Conservative Party by much of Quebec, Ontario and the West was exacerbated by its incredibly inept election campaign. This saw many Canadians drawn to a Liberal campaign that was relatively free .of carping and negativism and that offered a hopeful policy of job creation. The Liberal vote increased by over one third to 41 percent and the party's seats more than doubled from 82 to 177. But this was no Liberal "steamroller." Only one of the three areas channelled its disenchantment into solid Liberal support. Like Journal ofCanadian Studies Vol. 28, No. 3 (Automne 1993 Fall) 3 chickens coming home to roost, regional disillusionment with the ineffectiveness of Canada's national institutions congealed in a massive concentration of electoral support for regionally based parties - parties which have no representation or mandate outside their regions. This development takes to a logical conclusion one dimension of Canada's peculiar electoral system. In our system - in which the candidate with the most votes in a constituency wins the seat - parties are given tremendous incentive to "specialize" regionally. Consider the following: Reform Conservative Bloc Quebecois Votes 2,383,993 2,112,062 1,822,441 % Total Votes 18.2 16.1 13.9 Seats 52 2 54 % Total Seats 17.6 0.7 18.3 The Bloc, Reform, and Conservative Parties had similar success in terms of votes gained. However, the party with the least votes won the most seats (because its vote was concentrated exclusively in Quebec) and the Conservative Party won almost no seats because it enjoyed no regional concentration of votes. It played a "national" campaign and emerged empty-handed. Thus, the broad contours of the electoral result are terribly misleading, understating certain developments while exaggerating others. The Liberals hit the jackpot as the prime beneficiaries of the electoral version of Lotto 649. Consider the following: ' Liberals Votes 5,458,790 % Total Votes 41.6 Seats 176 % Total Seats 60 The Liberal Party is also regionally specialized, notwithstanding the fact that it elected MPs in all provinces. Expressing...

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