The 2016 Leadership Change in Vietnam and its Long-Term Implications

On 27 January 2016, the 12th Central Committee of Vietnam's ruling Communist Party (VCP) re-elected the seventy-two-year-old Nguyen Phu Trong as its General Secretary, breaking the rule that limits the age of candidates for this position to sixty-five. More strikingly, Trong's rival in the race to this top post was Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, who has been perhaps, as a country expert has noted, "Vietnam's most powerful politician over the past thirty years, since the demise of General Secretary Le Duan."¹ Unlike any previous contenders to this job, Dung fought until the last minute, reportedly gathering nomination votes from nearly twenty per cent of the delegates of the 12th VCP Congress, which elected the Central Committee on 26 January.² However, the fate of this contest was substantially sealed five weeks earlier, at the 13th Plenum of the 11th Central Committee (14–21 December 2015).³ Following this momentous event, the 14th Plenum, held one week before the 12th Congress, finalized the 11th Central Committee's recommendations for the top posts in the party-state: General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong would stay party chief, Minister of Public Security Tran Dai Quang was named the next state president, Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc the next prime minister, and Vice-chair of the National Assembly Nguyen Thi Kim Ngan the next National Assembly chair. A few months later the National Assembly would formally appoint the three individuals to these posts for the next five years.

The 11th Central Committee also prepared the lists of nominees from which the 12th Congress and the 12th Central Committee respectively would select a two-hundred-strong new Central Committee (which is the 12th CC) and a nineteen-strong new Politburo.⁴ In Vietnam's party-state, the VCP Central Committee is the country's highest decision-making body between the Party Congresses, while the Politburo takes on this role when the Central Committee, which meets about twice a year, is not in session. As "the Party leads and the State manages" (Đảng lãnh đạo, Nhà nước quản lý) in this party-state, the Party General Secretary is the supreme leader of the country and the Commander-in-Chief of the military, even though the titular head of state is the State President, who is empowered by the Constitution to have the highest command (thống lĩnh) over the armed forces.

What are the long-term implications of the leadership changes ushered in at the 12th VCP Congress for Vietnam's economic reforms, political developments, and relations with major powers and regional states? How to make sense of the stunning outcome of the race for the country's top job? What characterizes the new constellation and what does it mean for Vietnam's domestic and foreign policies in the years to come? To answer these questions, this chapter first investigates plausible explanations for the downfall of the powerful Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, whose defeat in an unusually vigorous bid for the top job paved the way for General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong to stay in power. Next, the chapter examines the new leadership constellation with regard to its policy tendencies. Finally, and based on this appraisal, the chapter explores major long-term implications of the new leadership arrangements for Vietnam's domestic politics, economic reforms, and foreign policy, especially its policy regarding China, the United States, and the South China Sea.

Explaining the Outcomes of a Power Contest

Although every VCP congress is a time of intense power struggles, the 12th Congress was especially partisan. Never before has politics in Vietnam been so reduced to a stark choice between two individuals. These two leaders were General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong and then-Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung. Trong's and Dung's personalities are polar opposites. At their core, Trong is a Confucian, who is loyal to his principles, while Dung is a capitalist, who is loyal to his profits. Although personality might play a part in their conflict, it was politics that...