The Philippines in 2016: The Electoral Earthquake and its Aftershocks

Anyone familiar with Philippine politics knows that the hundred-million strong nation is very passionate about holding elections. As an election year, 2016 proved that elections remain important and complicated political events in the country.¹ But rather than just another exercise of peacefully transferring power from one faction of the Filipino elite to another, the main outcome of the 2016 elections resembled a powerful earthquake that shifted the tectonic plates of Philippine politics. On 9 May 2016, more than 55 million voters cast their ballots in what many described as one of the most electrifying, fiercely contested, and politically significant electoral contests since the restoration of democracy in 1986. At stake were national posts for the presidency and vice-presidency, seats in the bicameral legislature, and local government positions. Expectedly, political dynasties and members of the country's elite once again dominated the polls of Asia's oldest democracy—with one glaring exception. Less than a day after voting officially ended, maverick city mayor and political firebrand Rodrigo Duterte secured an overwhelming victory in the presidential elections with almost forty per cent of the popular vote.

Electoral politics in the Philippines is a game mastered by the Filipino political class. This level of comfort was seen when outgoing Philippine President Benigno Simeon Aquino delivered his State of the Nation address to Congress in July 2015. With the members of the political establishment in attendance, and watched by millions of Filipinos, Aquino confidently declared that the coming elections would be a referendum on his "Daang Matuwid" (Straight Path) legacy of accountable governance. The television screen then split into three showing his likely successors—Vice-President Jejomar Binay, Senator Grace Poe, and Interior Secretary Manuel Roxas III. Not invited to the all-elite affair, Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte was sitting on a plastic stool watching the event hundreds of kilometres south of Manila. The 2016 elections proved that even masters of the political game can be prone to miscalculation, especially during times when they think the odds are overwhelmingly in their favour.

Coming from Mindanao, Duterte's unprecedented triumph is an important rebuke of the elites who have dominated politics for decades. Under their watch, Philippine democracy has neither matured nor collapsed. Instead, it has become trapped in a grey zone where weak political institutions coexist with widespread economic disparities, governance deficits, and lingering internal conflicts. Duterte's electoral mandate was a result of the collective rage of numerous Filipinos against the status quo, and their belief that as a catalyst for change, he can provide decisive leadership to solve their everyday problems.²

Duterte's inauguration as the republic's sixteenth President is the landmark that neatly divides 2016 into two parts. The first concerned Aquino's remaining months in office and his attempt to leave a lasting legacy within the context of one of the most acrimonious and closely fought national elections in recent history. The second half focused on the array of Duterte's new policies that included a hard-line war against drugs, which has been criticized for undermining human rights. The second half of the year also included Duterte's controversial push for an independent Philippine foreign policy in the midst of a favourable arbitral ruling given to the country regarding its territorial claims in the South China Sea (SCS), together with a turbulent Asia-Pacific security environment defined by the intense strategic rivalry between the United States and China.

Duterte's electoral victory was the political earthquake that is causing aftershocks and ripples throughout the country and beyond. With change naturally comes uncertainty, disturbance, and displacement. What are the likely trajectories and repercussions of Duterte's attempt to singlehandedly reshape the country's democracy? While it is too early to tell, it is expected that the more the unpredictable chief executive embarks on radical changes that entail undermining the entrenched interests of oligarchic elites, the more the nation's future will be defined by political instability and social polarization.

Aquino's Legacy: Selective Accountability without Leadership

In 2016, Aquino remained widely popular as he...