Abstract

Relying on the historical record and research on transitions from authoritarian rule, this essay questions the continued prospect of one-party rule in China. The fall of one-party rule generally occurs in two phases: a prolonged period of decay, followed by rapid breakdown. Like other autocratic regimes, China’s Communist Party will find its survival imperiled as the country enters the upper middle-income, or “transition” zone, where most non-oil autocracies have historically fallen. Compounding this, China exhibits many of the key symptoms of regime decay. These factors suggest that regime breakdown will occur, and will likely proceed via “refolution”: limited initial reform, followed by revolution.

pdf

Additional Information

ISSN
1086-3214
Print ISSN
1045-5736
Pages
pp. 5-19
Launched on MUSE
2016-10-19
Open Access
No
Back To Top

This website uses cookies to ensure you get the best experience on our website. Without cookies your experience may not be seamless.