Population and Human Welfare Scenarios for the Island of Hawai‘i up to the Year 2100

We explore the future of the population of the Island of Hawai‘i and its welfare up to the year 2100 by adapting the World3-03 model that couples nonrenewable resources, population, human activity, and environment, taking into account interactions between this island and the rest of the world. The island is very poor in nonrenewable resources, but it can acquire technology and some food through tourism revenues and outside investment. Under this model, the size and well-being of the island’s permanent population track closely that of the rest of the world, but even if the global population stabilizes, the island will still experience moderate social decline. Short-term (earthquakes, tsunamis, etc.) and long-term (rising ocean levels, geologic subsidence, etc.) effects are not contemplated in our scenarios.