Abstracts

Climate Change

Interacting Effects of Climate Change and Habitat Fragmentation on Drought-sensitive Butterflies. 2015. Oliver, T.H. (NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, UK, toliver@ceh.ac.uk), H.H. Marshall, M.D. Morecroft, T. Brereton, C. Prudhomme and C. Huntingford. Nature Climate Change 5:941–945. doi:10.1038/nclimate2746.

One of the predicted outcomes of climate change is the increased frequency of extreme climatic events. If an extreme event negatively affects a population, an increase in the frequency of such events may prevent population recovery and lead to the local extirpation of the species. Oliver et al. combine previously observed responses of butterflies to drought and land use with predicted climate change models to predict how changes in drought frequency and land use will influence the persistence of different species. They found that widespread butterfly extinctions will occur by 2050 if the current “business as usual” emission rates are not alleviated. They also show that increasing habitat area is not enough to allow for species persistence, but rather the focus should be on reducing habitat and population fragmentation. They predict that decreasing habitat fragmentation will decrease extinctions to some degree, but persistence by more than 50% of species can only be achieved by reducing fragmentation and greenhouse gas emissions combined.

A Bust but No Boom: Responses of Floodplain Bird Assemblages during and After Prolonged Drought. 2015. Selwood, K.E. (Monash University, Melbourne, Australia, katherine.selwood@monash.edu), R.H. Clarke, S.C. Cunningham, H. Lada, M.A. McGeoch and R. MacNally. Journal of Animal Ecology 84:1700–1710. doi: 10.1111/1365-2656.12424

In a rapidly changing climate, species have three options: migrate, adapt, or perish. If migration is out, a species must be able to withstand extreme conditions and rebound once conditions plateau, or extinction will be its fate. Climate change induced stresses are now being documented, for example, prolonged droughts followed by intense storms and rains. Australia just experiences a 13 year drought, ‘the Big Dry’, the worst in their history, followed by the wettest two years in history, ‘the Big Wet’. Selwood and colleagues examined resistance and resilience in 67 bird species in southeastern Australian floodplain forests during these periods. Their survey data showed that regardless of diet, mobility or fecundity, severe drought had substantial long-lasting effects; 25 species declined during the drought and did not rebound, seven more continued to decline after the drought, two species declined but rebounded by drought’s end, and three species partially recovered. The subsequent rains adversely affected all species; breeding species numbers and activity declined, and number of young produced did not change. They conclude that restoration and conservation efforts in areas forecasted to experience increased drought or flood frequency or intensity must stress increased biodiversity and restored hydrology.

Coastal & Marine Communities

Opportunistic Management of Estuaries under Climate Change: A New Adaptive Decision-making Framework and its Practical Application. 2015. Peirson, W. (Water Research Laboratory, the University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, bill.peirson@wrl.unsw.edu.au), E. Davey, A. Jones, W. Hadwen, K. Bishop, M. Beger, S. Capon, P. Fairweather, B. Creese, T.F. Smith, L. Gray and R. Tomlinson. Journal of Environmental Management 163:214–223. dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.08.021

Estuarine habitat management is challenging not only because of the multitude of stressors estuaries face, from shore and marsh development, damming, pollution, thermal input, aquaculture development, to saltwater intrusion, but also because of the many stakeholders and users of estuaries having different goals. According to Peirson et al., planners and managers are faced with opportunities to exploit and transformatively adapt to climate change-induced sea-level rise, in order to improve estuarine habitat, but can only successfully do so if they consider all of the stakeholders and all of the ecosystem services provided. They use two case studies from Australia to present an estuarine management framework that has worldwide application. The management and strategy plans include their work to create a comprehensive list of estuarine uses and values and the identification of 17 stakeholder groups and their interests. The group’s process for managing estu-aries in changing climates...