Major Problems, Few Solutions: Cuba’s Demographic Outlook

In the next several decades, Cuba will face major demographic challenges. As a result of persistent low fertility and high emigration rates, the population is contracting and aging. The aging population trend, as suggested by recent population projections, is irreversible over the short to medium term, posing considerable social and economic dilemmas for the future. How to address the needs of the elderly population will be at the center of the economic policy debate. Many rich countries facing comparable challenges are considering or implementing various policy options—in line with their prevailing social welfare policies—to cope with the aging crisis. Cuba, while facing far more adverse economic circumstances, will have to choose among these policy options as it implements inevitable social welfare reforms.