The Philippines in 2014: The More Things Stay the Same

The year 2014 reaffirmed the strongest underlying assumption of resilient continuity in Philippine political studies and by all early indicators 2015 will as well. This idea of resilient continuity is at the core of most academic and journalistic analysis of the Philippines. David Timberman referred to the Philippines as “changeless land”, while the last two Southeast Asian Affairs’ Philippines chapters also were organized around this prevalent idea.¹ Structure determines agency.

The preponderant view is that this powerful, resilient continuity is bad for Philippine society and is deeply rooted in the nature of the Philippine political system (cacique democracy), domestic economy (booty capitalism) and controversially a damaged post-colonial culture.² This sobering often defeatist image of the country heavily affects many Filipinos’ own views of their state and nation. A minority of local scholars have challenged this dominant narrative on both nationalist and analytical grounds while noting that most of its seminal works are by American scholars. These repeated challenges have had little effect.³

The single six-year term of Benigno Aquino III, which in 2014 moved from its mid-term to late-term phase, acts as a good test of this resilient and negative continuity assumption. President Benigno ‘PNoy’ Aquino III personally reaffirms political elite continuity being the son of the Philippines’ first post-Marcos president, Corazon Aquino, and the leading anti-Marcos politician, Benigno Aquino Jr., as well as the present scion of one of the most powerful Philippine political dynasties. His popularity in the 2010 elections, when he won the largest plurality of all post-Marcos presidential elections, was derived much more from the popular attraction of his family name and enhanced by sympathy from the death of his mother in August 2009 than by his unimpressive twelve-year record as a legislator.

Yet by 2010, the Philippine economy was already the strongest performer in maritime Southeast Asia and had sailed through the global financial crisis largely unperturbed. It belied the country’s “sick man of Asia” moniker and the assumption that political continuity in the Philippines predetermines economic stasis especially in comparison to its previously higher-performing Southeast Asian neighbours.

This chapter argues that the economic and political year of 2014 reinforces the dominant assumption about political continuity and its bad social outcomes while showing that the economy as a whole and even the economic reform agenda are not necessarily predetermined to stasis, elite capture and bad social outcomes. The chapter will briefly look at the developments in 2014 in four areas; national politics, the peace process with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, the national economy and foreign policy. It will not consider the fallout and recovery from super-typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda in the Philippines) as this is the subject of the following chapter.

National Politics

Two structural continuities of Philippine politics, corruption scandals, the early creeping onset of the president’s late-term lame duck status and the reallocation of political energy and focus to the next presidential and congressional elections, largely consumed national politics in 2014. On the corruption front, as expected, President Aquino’s 2010 campaign emphasized his anti-corruption commitment, criticized with justification the previous Macapagal-Arroyo administration’s impressive corruption (not anti-corruption) record and promised a “straight and narrow path” (tuwid na daan) administration not deterred or diverted by corruption. The fact that the President came from one of the wealthiest and most established political dynasties and boasts a political career yet to be sullied by corruption claims supported many Filipinos’ faith that this President and his administration may actually walk this less-travelled path.

Until mid-2014, Philippine voters across the archipelago and economic classes were steadfast in this faith. According to Social Weather Stations polling, President Aquino is the only post-Marcos president to maintain positive net results for their administration’s attempts to eradicate graft and corruption. All Aquino’s predecessors including his mother started their administrations with positive ratings on this issue before quickly plummeting into negative territory where they stayed for the remainder of...