Forecasting Model for Vehicular Demand: An Alternative Methodology in the Context of Developing Countries

Two most challenging problems facing transportation planners and policymakers in many developing countries are rapid urban traffic growth and lack of financial and technical resources to conduct major planning studies, especially for assessing the impacts of new sites and land-uses. The conventional urban transportation planning process, which is data and time intensive, has been of little value due to many transportation related obstacles (inadequate database, lack of funds, inadequate technical expertise, etc.). Advances in computer technology, especially in the areas of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), offer new ways of dealing with the aforementioned problems. This paper presents a new methodology for conducting transportation planning studies in developing countries. Integrating TransCAD, well-known GIS software for transportation applications, and Excel, spreadsheet software, the new model starts by estimating an Origin-Destination (O-D) table from traffic counts at the base year. Then, a modified O-D table is obtained from a simple procedure before determining the new traffic assignment, taking into consideration the new sites and land uses. The model was developed and applied for conducting regional transportation planning in the Gaza Strip, Palestine. A flexible, yet vigorous transportation planning mechanism was needed to assist planners in their efforts to plan for transportation in that highly populated area with a poor and old highway network. The results of the verification work conducted after each step during the development of the model have been acceptable. Moreover, transportation experts who live and work in the area have conducted complete validation of the results.