Business Cycles in the Haitian Economy

This paper has two objectives. The first one is to build an index of coincident indicators of economic activity n the Haitian economy during the identified cycles using Hardin and Pagan (2001) algorithm. The second objective is to enable policymakers to gauge with relative accuracy the probability that the Haitian economy be in expansion or recession during a specific quarter. To achieve these two objectives I use a probit analysis and a certain number of financial and fiscal indicators. The results appear promising for developing economies where data needed for policy guidance are often unavailable. Policymakers may find here an effective decision-making tool.