Chinese Perspectives on the U.S. Role in Southeast Asia

The United States is a long-term stakeholder in the Asia-Pacific. China recognizes that the United States is an irreplaceable “security anchor” in the entire region. Basically the U.S. role of “balancer” against any uncertainties in Southeast Asia — indispensible and tenacious — is an integral part of stability, peace, and prosperity at the regional level. Simultaneously Beijing understands the significance of close bonds between the United States and the ASEAN region — Southeast Asia needs the United States to counter-balance a rising China.

Yet, in China’s perception the Obama administration’s “rebalancing” moves portend a worrying trajectory for the Sino-American strategic relationship. Diplomatically, in China’s perception, the Obama administration has continually sought to keep China cornered and subdued with regard to the South China Sea issue by aligning with Vietnam, opening new military facilities in the Philippines, and excluding China from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). From a military perspective, the United States has sought to increase its preparedness through the Air-Sea Battle concept, a response to China’s anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) strategy, and moves like selling advanced F-16 C/D jetfighters to Indonesia and establishing a new military base in Darwin, Australia.

The ramifications of Beijing-Washington relations extend far beyond their immediate bilateral terrain, and will clearly decide the landscape of the Asia-Pacific region in a much broader sense. Any balance of power system will not automatically promote the highly valuable regional economic vigour which has now spread throughout the Asia-Pacific. Enduring economic growth at the very least reduces security concerns even if it does not produce security. China, contributing substantially to regional economic prosperity, will not be alone in independently seeking answers to some crucial questions such as how both powers can hedge against each other strategically while providing economic and trading benefits to the region. China-U.S. relations and their repercussions on the region must be supportive of regional economic prosperity. Otherwise, both countries will lose their appeal. The growing complexity of Sino-U.S. relations, if not well-managed, has the potential to destabilize Southeast Asia.

Strategic Distrust Could Increase, But Cold War Is Unlikely

The United States has been a long-term ally, friend, and key trading partner to Southeast Asia. America’s strong desire for a steady presence in the region has existed since the end of World War II. For that presence and influence, the United States fought the Vietnam War in the 1960s and earlier formed the Southeast Asian Treaty Organization to counter communist expansion. Even in the post-Cold War era and with the closure of some American military bases in the region, Washington has never underestimated the strategic significance of Southeast Asia as a key location on the geostrategic chessboard of the Asia-Pacific. Historic links, traditional allies, and the long-standing acceptance of the United States amid the ASEAN member countries provide a solid basis for U.S.-ASEAN relations. Beijing has been keenly aware of such congruence between the United States and Southeast Asia, and the Chinese would be unlikely to mistakenly see Southeast Asia as a “boxing ring” between Beijing and Washington.

Nevertheless Southeast Asia is not the backyard of the United States, and China-ASEAN relations have changed greatly since the early 1990s. Beijing’s rapid economic growth and its geographic proximity facilitate economic and social interconnection based on mutual benefit. In fact China’s rise coincides explicitly and happily with the surging tide of regional economic integration. The consequence is that Beijing has outperformed the United States in economic clout in the region in recent years. But China’s massive economic outreach to the Southeast Asia does not suggest that the region is increasingly compelled to choose a new side. Southeast Asia, as a whole, never accommodated to China’s rise, and instead has raised its concerns about the pull of China’s influence. Relying on the United States to be a strong “balancer” vis-à-vis China while also pushing for ASEAN as a counter-weight and a proactive regional player between the two giants...