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Page 2 What ifthe fate ofa book proposal were left up to the court ofpublic opinion rather than the judgment of a small group of editors? What if rather than sending a book proposal to a limited number ofquality reviewers, presses opted instead to place the proposal on a "blog" for public scrutiny? How would the judgment of the collective mind compare to that of the editors? Much to the chagrin of many (and the amusement of many more), we'll not have to wait very long to find out. On May 21, 2007, Project Publish was launched. It is a joint venture between the website (and blog) Media Predict and the publishing giant Touchstone Books/Simon & Schuster. Mark Gompertz, Executive Vice President and Publisher of Touchstone Fireside, calls Project Publish "the ultimate pre-publication, market-based focus group." Project Publish is the first (and surely not the last) attempt by a major publisher to harness the powers of the market to evaluate book proposals. It is a glimpse at the future of the publishing industry (which ironically comes on the heels of the tenth anniversary of the inception of the weblog, or "blog" as it is commonly known). In a recent newspaper article celebrating the ten-year anniversary of the blog, the novelist Tom Wolfe commented that "Blogs are an advance guard for the rear." "The universe ofblogs is a universe of rumors," continued Wolfe, "and the tribe likes it that way" (Wall Street Journal 7/14/07). One recent attempt to harness the power ofthe "Blog Nation" is Media Predict (http://mediapredict .com/), a website that allows its users to play a "prediction market game." The aim ofthis game is not merely amusement, but rather to "help media companies find stuffpeople really want." Registered users of Media Predict can look at prices and wager in four major markets: books, movies, music, and television. The higher the price of items in each market, the greater the chances of the product succeeding; the lower the price, the lower the chances of success. The Media Predict website explains the monetary values in theirmarket through the example ofa book proposal. "Ifan undiscovered book proposal trades at $38, that means users think it has a 38% chance of getting a book deal." Users of the Media Predict website are encouraged to purchase products that they think are going to do well in the market, and sell products that they do not think are going to do well. In the case of book proposals, if the book gets signed, then you receive $100 for every share you bought. If the book is not signed, then you receive $10 for each share that you have bought. Media Predict claims that with this process, "In the end we all win." "Better predictions help media companies choose the books, CDs, films, and television shows that people really want. That means you'll get media that you like, and so will everyone else." Media Predict also says that it is providing a forum for undiscovered material, such as "unsigned bands and undiscovered writers." The recently launched partnership between Media Predict and Touchstone Books/Simon & Schuster is a fascinating one. Here's how it will work: authors send their proposals to the Media Predict website. In September, the top fifty scoring proposals will be reviewed and winnowed down to five by Gompertz and a group ofhis editors. Trading on the five finalists will continue until the grand prize winner is announced on October 9, 2007. The grand prize is a book contract with Simon & Schuster. However, if none of the fifty finalists is of publishable quality, the highest scoring finalists will receive a cash award of two thousand dollars. Contrary to the claims of Media Predict, it is highly unlikely that this process will result in media that we like, particularly if the "we" are the readers of ABR. While one would not be surprised if the projects that traded highest on the book market sold well, one would be shocked if they were anything more than pedestrian in their literary value. There is very little chance that the process will result in a work of fiction that is...