Vanuatu

The relative political calm during the early weeks of 2011 was deceiving, given the controversy surrounding the change of government that had taken place the previous December (see Van Trease 2011). Having survived in office since the last national election in September 2008, a period that included several changes to coalition partners, the Vanua'aku Pati (VP)-led government under Prime Minister Edward Natapei was ousted in a vote of no confidence and replaced by his deputy, Alliance Group leader Sato Kilman on the afternoon of 2 December 2010, shortly after Natapei left the country, having received assurances from Kilman that the pending no-confidence motion was under control. That afternoon, however, once Parliament had convened, the Speaker took the unusual step of banning all media and the public from the chamber. At that point, Kilman and his Alliance Group crossed the floor to join the Opposition. The vote of no confidence was carried with 30 votes in favor, 15 against, and 7 abstentions.

On first impression, Kilman appeared to have misled Natapei on his departure from Vila into believing that he could be trusted to defend their existing partnership in the face of the ouster motion. Several months later, however, Kilman revealed to the press that the turn of events in early December had not simply happened out of the blue but was the result of Natapei's failure to live up to an early promise to redistribute ministerial portfolios within the coalition more equitably. Several letters sent to the prime minister requesting action had been ignored. Kilman was obviously under pressure from his own people to act, and Natapei's intended absence at the moment a vote of no confidence had been tabled obviously provided the opportunity to resolve the problem (VDP, 28 April 2011). The events that followed would seem to indicate that there had been prior planning, and it is therefore understandable that Natapei and the VP leadership felt betrayed and deceived by Kilman's final words to Natapei on his departure that December morning. Political betrayal is not uncommon in Vanuatu politics, but the fact that this had occurred on such a personal level created an obvious desire for revenge that would lead to an unprecedented period of political instability in the months that followed.

Rumors began to surface in January that moves were afoot to table a motion of no confidence against the new Kilman government, but the Opposition did not have the numbers to act, and the Union of Moderate Parties (UMP) dismissed the rumor that it would be leaving the government (VDP, 15 Jan 2011). However, the decision by the Council of Ministers to postpone the first sitting of Parliament, which was to take place on 21 January, indicated growing concern that certain backbenchers could be looking for new opportunities and might be susceptible to offers from the Opposition (VDP, 20 Jan 2011).

This was indeed the case. On 12 February, the two UMP ministers in the government, Serge Vohor and Charlot Salwai, resigned to join the Opposition, taking their members with them and complaining that the sharing of the thirteen ministerial portfolios permitted under the Vanuatu Constitution had not been done fairly. The UMP, with eight members of Parliament, the single biggest party in government, had been given only two ministries. The Alliance, the largest bloc (made up of Kilman's People's Progressive Party [PPP] with three members of Parliament and various other small parties and independents) had ten members in total and five portfolios. Ham Lini's National United Party (NUP), with only three members of Parliament, had two ministries—the same number as the UMP—and the Vanuatu Republican Party (VRP) had one ministry plus the position of Speaker. The Harry Iauko faction of the VP, with only three members of Parliament, had two ministries, and a group of independents had one (VDP, 12 Feb 2011). Kilman responded by hinting that he might seek a dissolution of Parliament rather than allow a new round of political instability (VDP, 14 Feb 2011).

In anticipation of a successful challenge, Serge Vohor (UMP), Edward Natapei (VP), and Maxime Carlot Korman (VRP) signed an...