Economies in Transition and Public Land-Use Policy: Discrete Duration Models of Eastern Wilderness Designation

Land-use policies may affect the structure of local economies as they respond to internal and external factors. We apply a discrete duration model to estimate the effect of designated wilderness on the rate and timing of counties' economic transition in the Appalachian Region from 1969 to 2000. Transitions are measured as the year in which non-labor sources of income and services sector employment dominate the aggregate of resource extraction and manufacturing sectors as sources. Marginal effects and elasticities show designated wilderness had no practical effect on rates and timing of transition.