Castro: To Fall Or Not To Fall?

CASTRO: TO FALL. OR NOT TO FALL? Wayne S. Smith Ifone has heard the question once on U.S. news programs over the past year or so, one has heard it a thousand times: "How much longer can Fidel Castro last?" It seems not to enter the minds of our pundits that Castro's political demise may not be imminent. Belief that it is seems to stem from the fact that since communist governments in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union have collapsed, and the Sandinistas in Nicaragua were voted out of power, Castro cannot be far behind. But one by no means follows from the other. Communist governments in Eastern Europe were all installed on the points of Soviet bayonets. None ever had any real popular support. Once Soviet military backing was withdrawn, their fates were sealed. Castro, on the other hand, came to power on the wave of a tremendously popular nationalist revolution, and for years enjoyed the support of the overwhelming majority of Cubans. His popularity has waned as economic problems have increased. Whether he could any longer win an election—or, more to the point, an approval rating—is open to question. Even so, there remains a significant reservoir of support, if only because many Cubans see no alternative to the Revolution and because many have a vested interest in its survival. Wayne S. Smith was Chief of Mission at the U.S. Interests Section in Havana (1979-82). Until he left the U.S. Foreign Service in 1982 because of fundamental disagreements with the Reagan Administration he was recognized as the State Department's leading expert on Cuba. He is the author of Portrait of Cuba (Turner Publishing, 1991) and is Director of Cuban Studies at SAIS. 97 98 SAISREVIEW Mikhail Gorbachev gambled that the old Russian Empire, with its myriad ethnic groups and nationalities, could be held together, and that the communist system could prevail in the Soviet Union even with democratization. He lost. The desire ofthe ethnic republics for independence was too strong, and the decay of the communist system too advanced . Once the peoples of the former Soviet Union had freedom of choice, they opted out. The union disintegrated and the system collapsed. The Sandinistas also gambled that they could win an open election. They came close, but ultimately, like Gorbachev, lost their gamble. Cuba's leaders have no intention ofmaking the same mistake. They concede that Cuba must adjust to the world that has changed around it. It must move quickly toward a more open economic system, and in time toward a more open political system as well. But they are determined that change will be carefully controlled, and that no step will be taken until the ground has been properly prepared. This is understandable, if regrettable. Most foreign observers wish to see greater freedoms in Cuba as quickly as possible. Given the chaos in the former Soviet Union, however, one can comprehend the rationale behind Cuba's leaders' insistence on caution. As one Cuban official put it: We must walk a fine line. We must bring about enough change in the economy—and eventually in the political process—so that they are not dysfunctional in the new world environment, but not so much, so quickly, that the process gets out of control, as it clearly did in the Soviet Union.1 To say that Castro is not in the same situation as the Eastern European leaders prior to their collapse, is not to say that his position is enviable. He faces a staggering economic crisis and, as suggested above, must perform a delicate balancing act. There is no certain road out ofthe first, and he could miscalculate in the second. Still, the bottom Une is that, economic problems or not, someone in Cuba would have to take the initiative to remove Castro. He certainly will not simply resign and leave the country. Quite the contrary, he obviously has every intention of struggling through—or of fighting to the end. And so far, there is no indication at all that anyone will step forward to oust him. There is virtually no organized opposition in Cuba. There are a few incredibly...