American Foreign Policy: A Japanese View

AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY: A JAPANESE VIEW Motoo Shiina It is somewhat difficult for a Japanese, at this particular time, to assert that the United States should remain engaged in world affairs and maintain its military, political and economic presence abroad. This is not for lack of good arguments, but because most Americans are not in the mood to hear this, especially from Japan, which is perceived by many as the main threat to the United States after the demise of the Soviet Union. If, for example, Japan were to propose a Marshall Plan to help the recovery of the U.S. economy, most Americans would feel insulted. If a Japanese argues that the United States should keep its military presence abroad, some Americans may smell a "plot," and say: "There they go again. Japan lets the United States bear the burden of maintaining the peace and security of the world, while it continues to make money. The Japanese want a free lunch." With the American presidential campaign at its height, a lively debate on the future ofAmerica's foreign policy is taking place. These discussions have to do with a fundamental question which only the Americans themselves can answer: What kind of nation does the United States want to be? Therefore, foreigners who believe in the American democratic process can only stay on the sidelines and watch the game. However, it is often useful for players to listen to how outsiders see the situation. Motoo Shiina is President of the Policy Study Group. He served four terms in the Japanese House of Representatives. 73 74 SAISREVIEW The Present International Situation It was only three years ago that democracies celebrated the fall ofthe Berlin Wall. It was less than two years ago that the war against Iraq ended in triumph. It has been less than a year since the Soviet Union disintegrated. All these fascinating developments were seen as victories for Western democracy. Many believed that Gorbachev's "new thinking" had paved the way for the transformation of a gigantic military and ideological machine into a country with democracy and free markets. They expected that the international solidarity formed during the Gulf War would be the touchstone of the post-Cold War international order. The military and moral defeat of Iraq was hailed by the international community as the harbinger of a safer and more peaceful "new world order." At the time of this writing, however, these sanguine assumptions seem to be less warranted. Looking at the present international situation , one sees instability and uncertainty. The vision of the "new world order" escapes us like a mirage in a desert.1 It has been argued, not so long ago, that the end of the Cold War would mark the "end of the history." Yet, what we see today looks more like "the revival of the history." With the end of the Cold War, notions that had served as the basis of the international system—such as rigid alliances and the Non-Aligned Movement—lost their meaning virtually overnight. Suddenly deprived of a familiar yardstick, the international community has lost its way. It is not surprising that many should have returned to past patterns of behavior in order to escape from uncertainty. Ethnic animosity, religious intolerance—these old demons, dormant during the Cold War, are back with an ominous sneer. Dangerous currents are thrusting us "back to history." Democracies at Loss The effects of the Cold War have been at least as momentous as those ofthe two world wars that preceded it. The situation in the former Soviet Union seems to be out of control. Such formidable forces of disintegration and integration are colliding with each other that nobody can predict what lies in store for the region. Central Asia, once an obscure part ofthe 1. For an earlier observation by the author on the subject, see "At a Foggy Mountain Pass: The World in Search of a New World Order," Japan Review of International Affairs 4.2, pp. 117-26. AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY: A JAPANESE VIEW 75 Soviet Union, suddenly became the focus of world attention as its peoples started searching for their new identity. In eastern Europe the euphoria of...