Delphi Methods and Rural Development

DELPHI METHODS AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT* Kenard E. Smith Increased demand for public services has accompanied rapid growth in coastal areas of the Eastern Seaboard. Residential and recreational developments have placed burdens upon community roads, law enforcement agencies, schools, utilities, and especially upon sewage treatment facilities. It is important, therefore, that community residents recognize the relationship between population growth and the political and financial burdens of providing new public services. This paper discusses the Delphi Method, which is useful for investigating local perceptions and opinions of developmental issues, for stimulating discussions by local interest groups about developmental strategies , and for identifying the probable locational characteristics of future development. Middlesex County, Virginia, a coastal county where considerable potential for growth is currently limited by waste treatment problems, was selected as a case study area for application of the Delphi Method. Decision makers in community and regional planning often assume that technology is a dependable solution to environmental problems. A case in point is a recent controversy in Fairfax County, Virginia, which involved the county supervisors' decision to deny a rezoning request of local builders wishing to construct additional high density housing. (J) The request was denied because public facilities and services , especially sewage treatment facilities, were believed inadequate to support proposed high densities. Local builders fought the decision in the courts, contending that the proposed developments could be accommodated by expanding existing facilities and services. * The author is indebted to Charles M. Good, Robert W. Morrill, Larry M. Springer, and John D. Stephens, Department of Geography, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, for comments and suggestions in the field and during the course of this study. The work upon which this paper is based was supported by the United States Department of the Interior, Office of Water Resources Research, administered by the Virginia Water Resources Research Center as project A-060-VA. Dr. Smith is Assistant Professor of Geography at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia 24061 . Vol. XVIII, No. 1 55 Northern Virginia residents, dissatisfied with rising taxes and unwilling to bear additional tax burdens to pay for sewers and other services required for residential growth, rejected new sewage bond issues. They had learned from past experience that rapid and uncontrolled residential growth follows new sewer lines. The experience of Fairfax County is a useful example of rising public awareness concerning the actual costs of growth, an issue which is not limited to Tidewater Virginia and the Eastern Seaboard. Because community awareness and preventive measures usually follow, rather than precede, the aftermath of unplanned and unregulated growth, it is important that strategies be developed which can help local residents identify present and potential developmental problems before they become crises. Many rural communities are facing demands for recreational home sites and subdivisions. These demands result not only in new lifestyles and attitudes, but also encourage increases in land values, housing densities, and demands for public services. Although many dimensions of rural development are worthy of consideration, the intention here is to focus briefly upon the setting for residential growth in Middlesex County, and to describe and evaluate the usefulness of the Delphi Method in combining technical information with local inputs and assessments of regional trends. THE DELPHI METHOD: A RESEARCH TOOL FOR PUBLIC PARTICIPATION AND EDUCATION. The Delphi Method is a technique designed to summarize the opinions of a group of authorities concerning a specific issue. Pill defines Delphi as: "a method of combining the knowledge and abilities of a diverse group of experts to the task of quantifying variables which are either intangible or shrouded in uncertainty." (2) Delphi achieves its goal through a series of questionnaires interspersed with feedback opinion. The items in the questionnaire: (3) are designed to bring out the respondent's reasoning that went into his reply to the primary question, the factors he considers relevant to the problem, his own estimate of these factors, and information as to the kind of data that he feels would enable him to arrive at a better appraisal of these factors and, thereby, at a more confident answer to the primary question. The Delphi process is dynamic because panel members are not only 56Southeastern Geographer sharing opinions with...