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  • Ethnic Politics in Myanmar:A Year of Tension and Anticipation
  • Martin Smith (bio)

The year 2009 was marked by rising tension in ethnic politics as different parties and stakeholder groups began to position themselves in advance of the 2010 general election, pledged by the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC).1 The first general election in Myanmar in twenty years (and only third in fifty), the 2010 polls are an integral element in what could become the most defining year in a generation, setting the landscape for the introduction of a new constitution and system of government. No quantum leap of change is expected. Under the new constitution, the leading role of the Myanmar armed forces (Tatmadaw) in national politics will be maintained through reserved positions for military personnel in both parliament and government.

Nevertheless, as 2009 progressed, leaders on all sides of Myanmar's political and ethnic divisions recognized that the 2010 election is an eventuality that they cannot ignore. For while the success or failure of the 2010 polls is likely to prove historic judgment on the political road map of the military government, events during 2009 signalled that they also represent a landmark challenge for the country's different ethnic groups. Whether by contesting, boycotting, or confronting the polls, the fate of individual nationality movements could be decided for many years to come.

Adding pressure on the political actors in Myanmar were the activities of Asian neighbours. In a fast developing region, political and ethnic events in Myanmar were followed with ever greater interest. During 2009, economic engagement accelerated, with a host of major energy, trade, and infrastructure projects under way or in the early stages of planning that are likely to change the political economy forever. Many are located in the ethnic minority borderlands, meaning that stability in Myanmar and international progress are becoming closely [End Page 214] interlinked. In the longer-term, Myanmar could be moving towards economic restructuring where the geopolitical consequences will also have an epoch-shaping impact on internal affairs.

There remains, however, a long way to go. One of the most ethnically diverse countries in Asia, the legacies of ethnic conflict have long underpinned state failure and humanitarian decline.2 Developments in 2009 could only provide indications of the likely trends as the SPDC attempts to initiate its plans for the 2010 election and its political road map. A critical time has arrived, causing all political actors to respond.

The Ethnic Landscape

During 2009 the distinctions between the different groupings in ethnic politics began to blur. There have always been overlaps and links. But during the two decades of SPDC government (formerly State Law and Order Restoration Council: SLORC), a surprising stability developed among the different parties and factions that were, in part, strategic and, in part, a reflection of the country's long-standing politics of survival. In many borderland areas, armed opposition has been a way of life since independence in 1948, with large territories controlled by ethnic and political forces of varying persuasions and goals.

A radical shake-up of the conflict landscape did take place during 1988-89. A rapid series of benchmark events occurred: mass pro-democracy protests, assumption of power by the military SLORC from the Burma Socialist Programme Party of General Ne Win, formation of new electoral parties, collapse of the insurgent Communist Party of Burma (CPB), and subsequent ethnic ceasefire policy by the new SLORC government.

Any expectations, however, that pan-ethnic movements would develop to unite either above ground or as armed opposition organizations soon petered out. Instead, ethnic-based movements became characterized by three main groupings during the SLORC-SPDC era: new electoral parties that stood in the 1990 election; ceasefire groups that included both former CPB allies and members of the pro-federal National Democratic Front (NDF; formed 1976); and non-ceasefire groups, most of which were allied in such border-based fronts as the National Council Union of Burma (NCUB) and worked with dissident and exile Burman groups that emerged after 1988.3 (A fourth group can also be mentioned: community-based and non-governmental organizations whose energy reflected the greater social changes taking place after the BSPP...

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