China's Power and the Fading U.S. Goal of "Balance" in the Taiwan Strait

[ 3 ] roundtable • defining a healthy balance China’s Power and the Fading U.S. Goal of “Balance” in the Taiwan Strait Robert Sutter President Ma Ying-jeou’s efforts to ease tensions in the Taiwan Strait are supported by the United States. Ma’s moderate approach stands in welcome contrast to the cross-strait policies of his predecessor, President Chen Shui-bian. Chen provoked China repeatedly as he raised cross-strait tensions to sometimes dangerous levels through various pro-independence initiatives.1 As in Taiwan, attention in the United States now focuses on progress in furthereasingtensionsthoughMa’spolicyofinterchangewithandreassurance of China. Rapidly developing China-Taiwan economic and social contacts are complemented by much slower progress regarding Taiwan’s international profile and the military build-up China continues to direct at Taiwan. U.S. policymakers and other interested observers are anxious to see if Beijing will reciprocate Taipei’s accommodation by allowing Taiwan to participate in the activities related to the World Health Organization, as well as whether China will ease military pressure through confidence-building or other measures. The U.S. inclination to support the positive in Ma’s reassurance policy toward China adds to an overall “positive and constructive” U.S. approach to China, voiced during Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s trip to Asia in February and President Barack Obama’s meeting with President Hu Jintao in London in April. U.S. and Chinese leaders play down U.S.-China differences in the interests of advancing cooperation on important economic, environmental, and regional issues.2 Support for the positive in recent cross-strait relations should not blind Americans to the risks and potentially adverse trends affecting U.S. interests in the cross-strait dynamics. In particular, the United States’ encouraging approachtoChinaandU.S.supportforPresidentMa’sstrongeffortstoreassure China have not directly addressed changing realities of power and influence 1 Shelley Rigger, “Needed: A Newish U.S. Policy for a Newish Taiwan Strait,” Foreign Policy Research Institute, E-Notes, March 2009 u http:// www.fpri.org/enotes. 2 David Brown, “China-Taiwan Relations: New Economic Challenges,” Comparative Connections 11, no. 1 (April 2009) u http://www.csis.org/component/option,com_csis_pubs/task,view/ id,5407/type,1/; and Bonnie Glaser, “U.S.-China Relations: A Good Beginning Is Half Way to Success,” Comparative Connections 11, no. 1 (April 2009) u http://www.csis.org/component/ option,com_csis_pubs/task,view/id,5407/type,1/. robert sutter is a Visiting Professor at the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. He can be reached at . [ 4 ] asia policy regarding Taiwan. Although easing tensions and promoting stability, support for Taiwan’s outreach to China also coincides with and sometimes indirectly reinforces ever-growing and deepening Chinese influence over Taiwan. Economically, this trend of growing Chinese influence is seen in the deepening of Taiwan’s trade and investment commitment to China, which culminated recently in the proposed Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement, later called the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement. Diplomatically, China’s effectiveness in isolating Taiwan has reached a point where it appears to many observers that Taiwan is directly seeking China’s permission in order to gain the ability to interact with the World Health Assembly and other organizations. Militarily, the cross-strait balance continues to tip in the favor of China and its large build-up during many years in which Taiwan’s defense spending and military preparations were much less than rigorous.3 The Issue of Balance U.S. policy has not publicly addressed these trends in cross-strait power dynamics, which appear to this observer to go against the long-standing U.S. objective of sustaining a balance of power and influence in the Taiwan Strait both favorable to the United States and Taiwan and influenced strongly by the United States. This goal was a centerpiece of U.S. policy during the Cold War. Even after the break in official relations, U.S. efforts to shore up Taiwan diplomatically, economically, and militarily in seeking an appropriate balance in cross-strait relations were seen in provisions of the Taiwan Relations Act in 1979, in U.S. efforts to preserve Taiwan’s seat in the Asian Development Bank in the 1980s, in U.S. efforts to support...