Rightsizing the People's Liberation Army Navy: How Much Naval Force Will Beijing Deploy by 2016?

[ 84 ] asia policy Rightsizing the People’s Liberation Army Navy: How Much Naval Force Will Beijing Deploy by 2016? Bernard D. Cole The current Chinese navy—the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)— has since its founding in 1949 labored as an adjunct of the army. It was not until the end of the Cold War and the removal of the Soviet threat that Beijing felt able to direct significantly increased defense resources to modernizing what has throughout its existence been a marginally effective coastal defense force. By 2006 the People’s Republic of China (PRC) had already deployed a navy with the ships, submarines, aircraft and systems ready to serve in pursuit of specific national security objectives, with Taiwan at the head of that list. This process of modernization—which includes improved personnel education and training, further doctrinal development, and a coherent maritime strategic view from Beijing—will almost certainly continue throughout the next decade. By 2016 China will have available as an instrument of national power a navy capable of carrying out assigned missions. The PLAN of 2016, at three times its present size, will dominate East Asian navies—with the possible exception of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF)—and will offer a very serious challenge to the U.S. Navy when it operates in that region’s waters. Present trends indicate that by 2016 the Chinese navy will allow Beijing to exert hegemonic leverage in maritime East Asia. This essay offers a brief review of PLAN development to 2016. The Current Composition of the PLAN China’s surface ship force is on the leading edge of current PLAN modernization. The PRC has launched new ships every year since 2000, following the adoption of a more deliberate but well-funded ship design and commissioning program during the 1990s. Particularly conspicuous Bernard D. Cole is a faculty member at the National War College in Washington, D.C. He has authored numerous articles and chapters as well as four books. His most recent book is Taiwan’s Security: History and Prospects (2006). He is currently writing a book on energy security in Asia. He is available at . note u This essay is a shortened version of a paper originally presented at the conference “Exploring the ‘Right Size’ for China’s Military: PLA Missions, Functions, and Organization,” Carlisle Barracks, PA, October 6–8, 2006 and to be included in Roy Kamphausen and Andrew Scobell, eds., Right Sizing the People’s Liberation Army: Exploring the Contours of China’s Military (Carlisle, PA: Army War College Press, forthcoming). The essay reflects the views of the author and may not reflect those of the National Defense University or any other agency of the U.S. government. [ 85 ] roundtable • sizing the chinese military are two ship types—destroyers and frigates—both of which are armed with very capable antisurface ship cruise missiles (SSM). The ship classes are all designed to be multi-mission capable, which means they are assigned missions across the spectrum of naval warfare areas, especially antisurface ship warfare (ASUW), antisubmarine warfare (ASW), and antiaircraft warfare (AAW). The ship-building programs launched by the PLAN at the dawn of the 21st century reflect both new confidence in and expertise of the Chinese warship construction industry. China has recently launched three new classes of destroyers and one new class of frigate. The Luyang I, Luyang II, and Luzhou class destroyers are all gas-turbine powered ships designed with some stealth characteristics and intended to provide the PLAN for the first time with ships capable of area AAW defense. Submarine Force u China is currently building and deploying a new class of nuclear attach submarine (SSN), the Shang class. Two of these boats are currently operating, with at least one more under construction. The Shang strongly resembles the 1980s Soviet-designed Victor III class SSN, although no doubt in comparison it is much modernized. The Shang has been compared to the U.S. Los Angeles class SSN, which although now 30 years old, continues to form the bulk of the U.S. submarine force. The PLAN has never succeeded in deploying a nuclear-powered submarine with nuclear-tipped inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBM...