A Rapidly Changing Military Balance: A National Security Perspective on Richard Bush's Untying the Knot

[ 119 ] book review roundtable • untying the knot A Rapidly Changing Military Balance: A National Security Perspective on Richard Bush’s Untying the Knot* Lyle Goldstein Untying the Knot represents a brave effort to untangle one of the most complex national security challenges confronting the United States in the current security environment. The paramount status of the Taiwan issue, which constitutes the most dangerous flashpoint in the world today, has been somewhat obscured by the global war on terrorism and the nuclear overtones ofcrisesinvolvingIran,NorthKorea,andSouthAsia.Nevertheless,theTaiwan issue is unique among these security challenges in that a crisis involving the island represents a wholly plausible scenario for major war between two nuclear-armed great powers. The truly devastating consequences of such a conflict, not only for the belligerents but for global security as a whole, underline the fundamental importance of this book. As one of the nation’s foremost experts on the Taiwan quandary, Bush demonstrates encyclopedic knowledge concerning both the origins of the dispute and, in particular, the fast moving pace of developments during the past decade. Scholars and national security practitioners will find that this new tome serves as an invaluable reference on narrow but important aspects of the Taiwan problem, ranging from security dimensions of Taipei’s evolving trade policy with the mainland (“avoiding haste” to “active opening”) to the sensitive issue of passports. Bush’s analyses regarding broader issues that are vital to any understanding of the Taiwan issue, such as Chinese nationalism and the nature of Taiwan’s exceedingly complex political landscape, represent superb surveys of available scholarship and are quite insightful. These insights sometimes reflect Bush’s extensive personal involvement in the issues under discussion. Bush describes, for example, the surprise of Taiwan Foreign Minister Eugene Chien mere hours after the announcement of the major constitution referendum initiative by Taiwan president Chen Shui-bian (p. 223). Bush also analyzes a variety of interesting PRC discussions. For instance, the intricate treatment of PRC scholar Su Ge’s important Chinese-  Even more unique is that such a war could potentially be instigated by Taiwan, a third party. Lyle Goldstein is Associate Professor, the U.S. Naval War College in Newport, RI. His first book was published by Stanford University Press in 2005. His research on Chinese security policies has appeared in China Quarterly, International Security, Jane’s Intelligence Review, Undersea Warfare, USNI Proceedings, and most recently in IISS Survival. He can be reached at . * This article reflects the personal opinions of the author and in no way represents the official viewpoint of the U.S. Navy or any other agency of the U.S. Government. [ 120 ] asia policy language book about Washington’s Taiwan policy offers unique and valuable insights into Beijing’s approach (pp. 203–4), and reveals the true extent to which conventional Chinese elite wisdom holds the United States culpable for creating and maintaining the Taiwan “problem.” Bush’s rendering of the security aspects of the Taiwan issue is relatively sound. Utilizing recent security studies scholarship, he skillfully introduces such vital concepts as the “security dilemma” (one side’s pursuit of security induces insecurity in the other state and thus fosters a dangerous actionreaction spiral) and the concept of the “prisoner’s dilemma” (wherein basic mistrust creates a lose-lose outcome). Bush also goes one step further by suggesting where these models might usefully apply to present policy dilemmas in both Taipei and Beijing. Most importantly, he highlights the new situation that is developing as a result of the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) accelerated modernization process, on the one hand (p. 107), and Taiwan’s apparent stagnation in the military realm, on the other. This evolving imbalance will surely have a profound impact on the future development of the Taiwan situation. One possibly significant flaw in Bush’s discussion of the security aspects of the Taiwan situation is a seeming tendency to understate the pace and significance of PLA development. A few examples from the aerospace and maritime spheres will suffice to make the point. First, and most importantly, the increasing numbers and accuracy of China’s short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) force render obsolete much of the previous conventional wisdom...