Looking Ahead: Some Genetic Issues of the Future

LOOKING AHEAD: SOME GENETIC ISSUES OF THE FUTURE JAMES V. NEEL* Introduction We are nearing the end of the exhilarating week-long intellectual feast presented by the Ninth International Congress of Human Genetics. This is an appropriate time to attempt to look both forward and backward with respect to some of the developments and issues that have characterized the field of human genetics in the recent past, and to old and new issues that may arise in the future. The First International Congress of Human Genetics was held in Copenhagen in 1956. You will recall that the Watson-Crick hypothesis had been enunciated in 1953, but the genetic code was still unbroken in 1956, and our minds were relatively unsullied by molecular considerations. Some of you younger members of the audience will wonder what we found to talk about. I assure you there was no dearth of topics, largely pertaining to the morphological and biochemical approach to human inheritance. The topic of the genetic risks of ionizing radiation was also front and center. Although there were sessions on registries of genetic disease and genetic counseling in the 1956 Congress, there was a studious avoidance of the subject of eugenics and—speaking as one who was present—a quiet resolve to avoid the mistakes perpetrated in the past in the name of eugenics. On the other hand—and this is relevant to my later discussion—the Congress did not shrink from taking a stand on topical issues, adopting a resolution to the effect that studies of the genetic effects of radiation on humans should be greatly extended ' 'with a view of safeguarding the well-being of future generations." Fear not, I shall not try to lead you through the seven international congresses intervening between that first and this present Congress, nor will I attempt to summarize even the highlights in the emergence of the molecu- *Department of Human Genetics, University of Michigan Medical School, Ann Arbor, MI 48109. This paper is slightly modified from a presentation read on 23 August 1996, as the final plenary session lecture at the Ninth International Congress of Human Genetics in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.© 1997 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved. 0031-5982/97/4002-0997$01.00 328 James V. Neel ¦ Looking Ahead lar approach in human genetics now so well reflected in the proceedings of these past congresses, and which so dominates the content ofthis Congress. Geneticists in general, but especially we human geneticists, have been privileged to participate in one of the most exciting and profound periods in all of human intellectual history. The rapidity of intellectual advance has undoubtedly been fueled by unprecedented governmental support of nonapplied research. My own special insight into the rate of intellectual advance is that whereas at that First Congress the primary indicator of the genetic effects of radiation on humans was congenital malformations and certain sentinel phenotypes, now, 40 years later, studies at the molecular level are being piloted out [I]. The Over-Arching Issue for the Future: A Non-Eugenic Approach to Reconciling the World 's Population with Its Resources With this nod to the past, let us now turn to some of the possible future emphases and developments in human genetics. Admittedly viewing the world through the eyes of a population geneticist, I will argue that the first order of business is the preservation and protection of the human gene pool, in all its poorly understood diversity. Many persons, as well as national and international organizations, have discussed the increasing tension between the needs of a rapidly expanding population and the equally rapidly dwindling resources to support that population [2-19]. In the year of my birth, the world's population was estimated at 1.9 billion. This year it is estimated at 5.8 billion. By the year 2020, with current trends, and barring major breakdowns in local distribution systems or major famines or epidemics, it is projected to be approximately 8 billion. The accelerating loss of agricultural, mineralogical, hydrological , oceanic, and sylvatic resources that has accompanied that population expansion is especially well documented in the annual publications of the Worldwatch Institute, entitled State of the World. Furthermore, at this...