Cambodia: The Endgame of Politics?

Southeast Asian Affairs 2007 CAMBODIA The Endgame of Politics? Milton Osborne The passage of 13 years since the first post-UNTAC (United Nations Transitional Authority in Cambodia) elections were held in Cambodia, in 1993, gives emphasis to the single most important feature ofthe country's domestic politics — the definitive rise of Hun Sen to be Cambodia's most powerful leader. When (in December 2002), he boldly stated that he would like to rule as prime minister for a further ten years, his statement was taken by some observers to be a pre-emptive challenge to members of his own Cambodian People's Party (CPP), as much as a reflection of his longer-term plans and hopes for his role in Cambodian political life. And in the complex manoeuvring that took place after the 2003 elections, some questioned whether Hun Sen could prevail as the CPP's parliamentary leader since there was evidence of dissension within the upper echelons of the party. Then it was widely believed that the party president, Chea Sim, was opposed to Hun Sen's continuing dominance. But events since that time have made clear that Hun Sen both wishes to retain power and remains ready to act decisively to ensure that he does so. Developments in October 2006, which saw FUNCINPEC (Front Uni National Pour Un Cambodge Indépendant, Neutre et Coopératif) dismiss Prince Norodom Ranariddh from his leadership of the party, need to be seen in the wider context of Hun Sen's control of the country's political agenda. In the case of Ranariddh's dismissal, what has transpired may very well be the endgame of Cambodian politics in which Hun Sen has neutered his most potentially dangerous opponent. At the same time, Ranariddh's dismissal can also be seen as part of the steadily diminishing capacity of members of the Cambodian royal family to play a determining role in the country's domestic politics. Milton Osborne is a Visiting Fellow at the Lowy Institute for International Policy, Sydney, Australia, and an Adjunct Professor in the Faculty ofAsian Studies at the Australian National University, Canberra. 118Milton Osborne These judgments are made against the broader background of the Cambodian government's having weathered a range of criticism from various bodies, including UN officials and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and in particular vocal domestic opposition during 2005 to the border agreements concluded with Vietnam. With the Consultative Group of international donors showing less concern to demand improved performance on such matters as human rights, and China establishing itself as Cambodia's most important single provider of aid, the country is in better economic shape than has been the case for some years. The announcement that commercial reserves of oil have been discovered off Cambodia's coastline gives further reason for cautious optimism about the country's economic future. Meanwhile, progress is slowly being made towards holding the long-delayed trials of senior Khmer Rouge leaders. At the same time, Cambodia's relations with its immediate neighbours were largely untroubled during 2006. AU in all, the balance sheet seems to reflect progress. Nevertheless, a closer look at developments over the past 12 months suggests that a healthy degree of reserve is, at the very least, appropriate when assessing the actual health of Cambodia's political life, not least in terms of continuing problems of impunity and corruption. Meanwhile, potential international problems linked to the environment, currently at the margins, deserve greater attention than they have so far received from the government. Domestic Politics and the Rise of Hun Sen Politics in general At the beginning of 2006 there was no doubt that Hun Sen was in control of the political process, but the means he was using to achieve this position had prompted lively criticism both from within Cambodia and from international observers, including the US State Department.1 The particular issue of contention was the arrest of journalists and human rights activists on charges of criminal defamation in relation to the "Supplementary Border Agreement" concluded between Cambodia and Vietnam and signed in October 2005. Hun Sen had warned at the time that he would act against anyone suggesting that in signing this agreement he had...