-
African Elections as Vehicles for Change
- Journal of Democracy
- Johns Hopkins University Press
- Volume 21, Number 4, October 2010
- pp. 139-153
- 10.1353/jod.2010.0019
- Article
- Additional Information
- Purchase/rental options available:
Although government defeats are extremely rare in multiparty Africa, little analysis has taken place of the conditions under which ruling parties lose power. This article documents a remarkable pattern that has so far received little comment: throughout the continent opposition parties are almost four times more likely to win elections when the sitting president does not stand. Using a comparative data-set and examples from Kenya, Ghana, and Sierra Leone, the article explains the three main reasons that open-seat elections are more likely to lead to political change, and considers the relationship between term-limits, turnover, and democratic consolidation.